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Bitcoin Price Forecast: RSI Reaches 23 as BTC ETFs Return to Pre-Election Levels
Bitcoin is trading at $61,433 on 10 June, holding above the support zone that was briefly broken on 5 and 6 June, when Fidelity Digital Assets noted that the price fell below the 200-week SMA near $61,800 — a level historically associated with forced-selling events.
Bitcoin Daily Chart: RSI at 23 With Every EMA Pointing Down
Daily price action for $BTC. Source: TradingView.
The daily chart is structurally as bearish as it can be. All four EMAs are stacked in bearish order: the 20 EMA at $67,887, the 50 EMA at $71,984, the 100 EMA at $74,192 and the 200 EMA at $79,393. Price is moving lower, and there is no recovery level to clearly target.
The only standout number is the RSI at 23.85. This is deeply oversold and matches the reading that led to the last bullish divergence in February 2026 before the rebound to $84,000. History does not repeat exactly on a chart, but a daily RSI this low usually compresses downside further.
Resistance: $67,887 — 20 EMA, $64,000 — upper part of the channel.
Support: $61,800 — 200-week SMA, $60,000 — round-number low.
Why Bitcoin ETF Outflows Tell the Real Story
Total net assets across U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs fell to $77.58 billion on 9 June, erasing all gains made since Trump’s election victory in November 2024. ETF assets peaked at $169.54 billion in October 2025. That is more than $90 billion in lost value despite the most favourable regulatory environment Bitcoin has ever operated in, with a strategic reserve established and the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act advancing in Washington.
Cumulative net inflows have declined by almost $9 billion from their peak. Binance Research analysts point to the Fed’s inflation-driven hawkishness as the main trigger for exits. Former 21Shares co-founder Ophelia Snyder adds that AI, SpaceX and competing growth narratives are pulling capital out of crypto at the worst possible moment.
$BTC Derivatives: Long Positions Are Still Suffering
$BTC derivatives analysis. Source: Coinglass.
Volume rose by 1.83% to $72.18 billion, while open interest slipped slightly by 0.15% to $45.31 billion. The long/short ratio of 0.9512 leans slightly bearish. Over 24 hours, $92.14 million in long positions were liquidated versus $27.13 million in shorts.
The latest bounce was a short squeeze, not fresh buying. More than $500 million in bearish bets were wiped out during the move from the lows, but spot-market demand never followed. Without the return of ETF inflows, rallies remain technically fragile.
Wednesday’s Inflation Print Will Determine the Next Move
A hot U.S. inflation reading would ensure that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh remains hawkish, reducing liquidity for non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin. Gold is already falling below $4,200 an ounce at the same time — a rare correlation that signals macro selling rather than crypto-specific pressure.
In addition, the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.54% amid a broader sell-off in risk assets, with South Korea’s Kospi down 6.3% and Nasdaq 100 futures pointing lower. Bitcoin is currently trading tick-for-tick with equities, weakening its case as a macro hedge at exactly the moment when it needs to prove otherwise.
Is #bitcoin flashing bear market continuation, or an early bull market reset?
Bitcoin has been in a death cross for 204 days, with price briefly breaking below the 200-week SMA (~$61.8K) June 5–6. Notably, sustained breaks below this level have historically coincided with…
— Fidelity Digital Assets (@DigitalAssets) June 8, 2026
Fidelity Digital Assets noted that $BTC has been in a death cross for 204 days, with the price briefly falling below the 200-week SMA on 5 and 6 June. Every previous sustained break below this level has coincided with forced-selling events, the most notable of which was 2022.
Bitcoin Price Forecast for 11 June 2026
Upside: holding above $61,800 and a cooler inflation print target a relief move towards $64,000. RSI at 23 creates room for a sharp rebound if macro pressure eases.
Downside: a daily close below $60,000 reopens the path to $56,000, with no meaningful support between the two levels.
See also: "XRP Drops 4.5% as Heavy Selling Breaks Another Support Level"
