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Analysts warn of a potential drop in Ethereum to $1,350
Ethereum ($ETH) is trading above $2,000. The cryptocurrency may close March with its first green monthly candle since August 2025, breaking a six-month losing streak.
March’s close could set the tone for April and even the entire 2026. Historically, April has been a strong month for $ETH, with an average gain of 18% and a median return of about 9%. However, analysis of the 3-day chart, whale behavior, and on-chain indicators suggests that Ethereum’s movement in April carries more risk than seasonal trends imply.
3-day chart signals hidden divergence
The asset has not posted a positive monthly close since late summer. A reversal is now forming, though gains remain modest. The 3-day timeframe raises structural concerns. Price is moving within an ascending channel after falling to $1,730 on February 6. This pattern followed a nearly 50% drop from the January high of $3,410. Such formations often act as continuation patterns and typically resolve downward if the upper boundary is not convincingly broken.
ETH monthly returns: CryptoRank
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows hidden bearish divergence. Between December 9 and March 23, price formed a lower high while the oscillator formed a higher high. This suggests a likely continuation of the dominant downtrend. The current recovery may therefore be a false signal, reinforcing the ascending channel thesis.
3-day RSI divergence: TradingView
A similar pattern was observed earlier in winter. After confirmation, the asset dropped sharply. The current divergence is recent, with price already retreating from $2,200 to $2,000. The lower trendline is acting as support; a breakdown would intensify bearish momentum into April.
Large capital slows accumulation
The technical setup is supported by on-chain data. Glassnode’s net position change metric for long-term holders shows a concerning trend. The 30-day holding metric for wallets older than 155 days peaked at 543,169 ETH on March 21, then fell 78% to 121,902 by month-end.
ETH holder net position change: Glassnode
Such a decline is significant. A similar pattern occurred earlier this year: the metric declined from mid-January and turned negative on February 3. During that period, price dropped from $3,383 to $1,824 (≈46%). Current dynamics closely mirror that decline, indicating weakening buyer confidence.
ETH supply distribution among large holders: Santiment
Whale behavior adds uncertainty. Two major cohorts increased their holdings from March 25:
1–10M ETH holders: 8.07% → 8.22%
mid-sized whales: 13.19% → 13.53%
However, both groups began reducing positions before month-end. While volumes remain modest, the shift in direction is concerning.
Key resistance and support levels
Higher timeframes provide clear guidance. ETH needs to close above $2,200 to regain bullish momentum. The next confirmation level is $2,390. A breakout would push price above the channel and shift the structure from continuation to reversal.
Ethereum price analysis: TradingView
However, this scenario appears unlikely given market weakness and selling pressure from large players. The more probable path is downward. Immediate support is $2,000; losing this level opens the path to $1,750–$1,730.
If the winter scenario repeats, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement points to $1,350 (≈30% downside). Holding above $2,200 keeps the bullish case intact, while a breakdown risks triggering a sharper decline.
See also: "In 2026, Bitcoin reserves at Eric Trump’s mining company surpassed 7,000 BTC"
