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03/04/26 10:51 UTC-04

Binance: Bitcoin Stops Following the Fed and Starts Anticipating Macro Trends

Binance analysts reported a transformation in Bitcoin’s role in the market. According to them, the asset is becoming less reactive to Federal Reserve decisions and is increasingly pricing in future macroeconomic policy changes in advance.

Previously, Bitcoin’s dynamics were largely dependent on regulators: rate cuts supported growth, while tightening policies put pressure on prices. However, analysts believe this model stopped working after 2024.

The key factor has been spot ETFs and the inflow of institutional capital. New market participants focus not on short-term news, but on forecasting macroeconomic cycles over a 6–12 month horizon.


Change in Bitcoin’s correlation with macro cycles before and after ETF launch. Source: Binance.

According to the research, institutional investors have become the “marginal buyer” determining price. They process macro data faster and position themselves in advance, shifting the market’s reaction in time.

As a result, Bitcoin has started moving before key regulatory decisions are announced, the company noted. In their view, this indicates a shift from a reactive model to a forward-looking one.

Correlation with Macro Cycles Has Shifted

Analysts also presented data confirming this shift. Before ETF launches, Bitcoin’s correlation with easing cycles was about +0.21, but afterward it changed to −0.778, indicating a leading price movement.

This means the market begins pricing in future Federal Reserve actions before official announcements. Thus, Bitcoin is becoming an instrument that reflects investor expectations rather than reactions to past events.

Experts believe this shift makes the market more mature and institutionalized. At the same time, current volatility is seen as a short-term factor that does not affect the long-term transformation.

Binance noted that the growing role of institutional investors increases the demands on liquidity and trading infrastructure, enhancing the importance of major platforms that provide access to global capital flows.

Ultimately, Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as an asset capable of anticipating macroeconomic changes, which may reshape its role in investor portfolios.

See also: "Bitcoin is vulnerable as holiday breaks end the flow of funds into ETFs and CME"

#Fed #Bitcoin (BTC) #Statistic

Editor: Pereyidenko Ihor
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