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Bitcoin Is Squeezed Between $74,000 Support and $80,000 Options
Bitcoin has once again found itself in a narrow range. The price bounced from the area around $74,500 but has not yet managed to return above the key on-chain levels near $77,000. Against the backdrop of a major options expiry on May 29, the market is effectively squeezed between two important marks: $75,000 below and $80,000 above.
This structure explains the weak volatility of recent days. Buyers are defending the short-term support area, while sellers are preventing $BTC from consolidating above the zones where large options positions and on-chain resistance are concentrated.
On-Chain Levels Are Once Again Driving the Market
Annual Volume-Weighted Average Cost Basis
Since early April, Bitcoin has been following the 2026 realized price, which is now around $76,200. This indicator reflects the average purchase price of coins that last moved in the current year.
For traders, such levels are becoming more important than ordinary round numbers. They show where the average entry point of large groups of market participants is located. If the price remains below such a zone for a long time, it signals tension among recent buyers.
A similar situation already occurred in February, when $BTC fell almost to $60,000 and found support near the 2023 realized price. Now the market is once again looking at the cost basis of individual investor cohorts as a real boundary between supply and demand.
The $74,500 Support Has Held the Price So Far
Over the weekend, Bitcoin briefly dropped to $74,500 but then bounced from the 128-day moving average. Traders use this level as one of the technical reference points of the current cycle.
So far, holding this level has helped avoid a deeper drawdown. However, the market has not yet shown a full upward reversal. $BTC remains below important on-chain metrics near $77,000.
This is where the average market cost basis, the average purchase price of short-term holders, and the cost basis of short-term holders are located. These levels often show how confident investors who bought the asset in recent months feel.
The $77,000 Area Has Become the Main Resistance
As long as Bitcoin trades below $77,000, the market looks cautious. This zone has become the boundary between recovery and the continuation of sideways movement.
If $BTC manages to return above the cost basis of short-term holders, sentiment may improve quickly. In that case, some buyers will again begin to consider a move toward $80,000.
But while the price remains below, short-term market participants remain under pressure. This limits demand and makes any rebound vulnerable to profit-taking.
Deribit Expiry Reinforces the Range
$BTC Price + Key Levels
Additional pressure on the price is being created by the large options expiry on May 29. Around $6.6 billion worth of contracts are set to expire on Deribit, and the largest positions are concentrated precisely around the current range.
On the call-options side, the main level is around $80,000. Open interest there is estimated at approximately $600 million. On the put side, the largest zone is near $75,000, where around $377 million is concentrated.
This setup creates an incentive for market makers to keep the price between these marks. The closer the expiry gets, the more strongly the market may “stick” to the $75,000–80,000 range.
More Than 15% of the $BTC Supply Was Bought in This Range
Glassnode data shows that more than 15% of the entire Bitcoin supply was acquired between $74,000 and $83,000. This is a very dense cost-basis zone for the market.
When so many coins are concentrated in a narrow range, the price often moves slowly and nervously. Every rise prompts some investors to try to exit at breakeven, while every decline attracts buyers who are defending their positions.
That is why $BTC now looks “squeezed.” The market needs either to confidently break through the upper boundary or lose the lower support for volatility to return.
What Comes Next?
Until the May 29 expiry, Bitcoin may continue trading in the range between $75,000 and $80,000. On-chain levels, supply concentration, and options positions are currently working in the same direction: they are restraining sharp moves.
For the bullish scenario, $BTC needs to reclaim the $77,000 area and then consolidate above $80,000. This would ease pressure on short-term holders and could open the way to a stronger recovery.
If the price loses $74,500–75,000 again, the market risks moving into a deeper correction. For now, Bitcoin remains in waiting mode, and the next major move will likely begin after it breaks out of the current range.
See also: "Bitcoin Falls Below $76K Amid Tensions Around Iran"
