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ETH/BTC Pair Continues to Decline: Analyst Warns of Another 40% Downside Risk
Ethereum’s weak performance relative to Bitcoin continues to draw attention in the cryptocurrency market.
Analysts note that the ETH/BTC pair has fallen more than 35% over the past year and warn that if the current downtrend continues, the pair could face an additional 40% decline.
According to analyst Yashu Gola, the ETH/BTC chart is repeating the bearish pattern seen during 2024–2025. Technically, the pair remains under pressure below a descending trendline that has been in place since 2022. Although this level has been tested several times, it has never been decisively broken.
It was also noted that one previous failed breakout attempt resulted in a sharp decline of nearly 70%.
According to the analysis, ETH/BTC tested the trendline again in August 2025 but encountered strong resistance. The pair subsequently fell below the 20-month exponential moving average (EMA) near 0.034, signaling that the bearish trend remains intact.
If the downward trend continues, the next major target is the 0.0176 level, which corresponds to the cycle lows of 2020 and would imply an additional 40% drop from current levels.
On-chain data also points to growing selling pressure on Ethereum. According to CryptoQuant, ETH reserves on Binance rose to 3.62 million ETH as of May. This represents approximately 24.6% of the total ETH reserves held across all exchanges.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin reserves on Binance continued to decline during the same period.
Market experts believe that rising exchange reserves generally indicate an increase in tokens available for sale, while declining reserves strengthen the long-term holding trend.
Analysts say this situation further highlights the fundamental divergence between ETH and BTC.
They also note that Ethereum’s once-dominant “sound money” narrative is gradually losing influence, while Bitcoin continues to receive support from institutional firms — especially Strategy — and investments from Wall Street.
