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Has the Bitcoin bear market ended? An expert analyst examines technical data and gives an answer!
Crypto analyst Caleb Franzen shared a comprehensive assessment of Bitcoin’s recent price movements. According to Franzen, although the current attempt at a bullish trend differs in some aspects from the failed breakout attempts in January 2026, it is still too early to say that a new bull market has begun.
Franzen noted that the first notable difference in the technical structure is the quality of the breakout. Reminding that the bullish attempt observed in January 2026 quickly failed, the analyst stated that in the current situation Bitcoin has turned resistance into support and formed a higher high compared to mid-April. He described this development as a “constructive” signal.
Franzen also emphasized the importance of the time factor, noting that the previous recovery from the November 2025 low lasted 54 days, whereas the current rally has already lasted 78 days. While such duration is considered a positive factor, it is not sufficient on its own to confirm a trend reversal.
The analyst paid particular attention to exponential moving averages (EMA). Franzen stated that the crossing of the 21-day EMA above the 55-day EMA is an unprecedented event and said that these ranges (21–55–100 EMA) should now be considered critical support levels. He added that holding these levels during a potential correction will be crucial for the bullish scenario.
On the other hand, it was noted that some key indicators still show weakness. Franzen stated that the 100-day and 200-day moving averages may remain a strong resistance zone, and emphasized that the structure of weekly moving averages also points to a downward trend. The fact that short-term averages remain below long-term ones indicates that the market is still in a bearish state.
Franzen also noted that Bitcoin’s annual return is currently around -18%, indicating the continuation of the downward trend. According to the analyst, staying below the 200-day moving average, one of the most important indicators, suggests that the bear market is not over yet. He recalled that historically, a breakout above this level confirmed the start of a new bull trend.
In conclusion, while Franzen acknowledged that recent price movements contain positive signals, he stated that the overall outlook still calls for caution.
However, he believes that the current rise is likely a “recovery rally,” and that the bear market will continue until proven otherwise.
See also: "Bitcoin Gives Back Gains After Rally Above $79K; Vegas Summit 2026"
