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Polymarket Traders Put the Probability of Bitcoin Falling Below $60,000 in June at 62%
Traders across various prediction markets are pricing in a significant decline in Bitcoin’s price well before any potential recovery to a six-figure level.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket’s June Bitcoin market, with $6.22 million in volume, puts the probability of $BTC falling to $60,000 or lower at 62%.
- Kalshi’s “$60,000 versus $100,000” contract gives an 83% probability that Bitcoin will reach $60,000 before the end of 2026.
- Many traders price the probability of a drop to $55,000 at 67.9%, compared with a move to $84,000 in Bitcoin’s next major move.
As of 15:30 Eastern Time on 4 June 2026, Bitcoin was trading at $63,826, approximately 2.8% below its daily level. This price level has become the focus of attention on Polymarket, Kalshi and Myriad, where open contracts worth millions of dollars show a persistent bearish bias.
June Price Market: Bears Lead at the $60,000 Level
Polymarket’s “What price will Bitcoin reach in June?” market has attracted $6.22 million in total volume since launching on 1 June. The largest trading volume on the board has centred on the $60,000-or-lower target, which has attracted more than $748,000 in trading turnover and carries a 62% implied probability.
Traders also price the probability of Bitcoin falling to $57,500 or lower this month at 36%, while the probability of the price reaching $55,000 stands at 23%.
Source: Polymarket “What price will Bitcoin reach in June?” — total trading volume $6.22 million. Data as of 4 June 2026, 15:30 Eastern Time.
On the other hand, the same market puts the probability of Bitcoin retesting the $65,000 mark at some point in June at 88%. However, the probability of reaching higher targets declines quickly. The probability of a move to $70,000 is only 34%. The probability of a move to $80,000 is estimated at 5%.
$55,000 Versus $100,000: The Question of 2026
Polymarket’s annual contract “What price will Bitcoin reach in 2026?”, with total volume of $40.64 million, shows a sharp divide between optimistic and pessimistic forecasts.
Traders price the probability of Bitcoin falling to $55,000 or lower before the end of the year at 70%. The probability of a drop to $50,000 is estimated at 56%. The probability of a fall to $45,000 stands at 40%. On the other hand, the probability of returning to the $100,000 mark is priced at only 21%. The probability of a move to $150,000 is 6%.
Kalshi Supports the Bearish Scenario
Kalshi’s contract “Will $BTC reach $60,000 before $100,000?” with trading volume of $25,862 gives an 83% probability that Bitcoin will reach $60,000 first. The “Yes” contract is trading at 84 cents.
A separate Kalshi market, “Bitcoin at $150,000”, backed by $34.6 million in volume, puts the probability of reaching that milestone before August 2026 at less than 1%, before September at 3%, and before January 2027 at only 4%. Traders point to Federal Reserve interest-rate policy and broader macroeconomic uncertainty as factors reducing the probability.
Myriad Markets: Drop to $55,000 Gets a 68% Edge
Myriad runs a direct contract asking whether Bitcoin will first reach $84,000 or $55,000. Out of total trading volume of $187,000, 67.9% went to the drop-to-$55,000 scenario, while the move-to-$84,000 scenario accounted for 32.1%.
The contract has no fixed expiry date and settles when either target is reached on Binance’s $BTC/USDT spot market.
What Traders Are Watching
Overall, these markets reflect participant sentiment leaning towards continued downside pressure in the near term, with limited confidence in a sustained recovery above $70,000 during June. Much of the capital is concentrated in the $55,000–60,000 range in the event of a decline and on a retest of the $65,000 level in the event of a rebound.
Bitcoin’s current position at $63,826 sits between these two camps. The next several weeks, or even days, will determine which side gains the upper hand.
See also: "Ethereum Price Today Is $1,764: Will ETH Rebound or Continue to Fall?"
