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XRP technical structure points to further decline
Bearish sentiment dominates the $XRP market, and analytical data suggests a relatively low probability that the asset will reclaim the $3 level in the second quarter of 2026.
At present, $XRP faces a weak technical structure, multiple resistance levels, and limited time for a sustainable breakout, which is likely to cap growth in the coming months.
For nearly eight months, $XRP has been trading in a downtrend, reinforcing bearish projections. However, trading volume remains high at around $2 billion, indicating that hope has not been completely lost.
Technical data shows that the RSI for the $XRP/$BTC pair has dropped to 23, marking the most oversold level since October 2025. Historically, RSI at such levels for $XRP/$BTC has preceded breakouts of 65%–345% not in favor of Bitcoin.
$XRP/$BTC. TradingView data
The $XRP MVRV Z-score is hovering around zero — a level that has coincided with accumulation zones in 2021, 2022, and 2024 before each subsequent major rally. A similar situation in June 2025 led to a 61% rise in $XRP against $BTC and a 92% price increase to $3.66.
The Fear and Greed Index stands at an extreme level of 16, with 26 out of 29 technical indicators currently signaling a bearish trend.
The price is consolidating within a narrow range with clearly defined technical boundaries. Resistance levels are at $1.37, $1.39, and $1.41; the 50-day moving average sits at $1.40, making bulls more cautious. Support zones are identified at $1.33, $1.32, and $1.31, with the strongest lower boundary located in the classic reversal zone at $1.28–$1.30.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has neutralized around 46.48, indicating neither oversold conditions nor directional momentum.
$XRP/USD, TradingView data
Short-term forecasts remain cautious. The projected price range for April is $1.30–1.51, suggesting limited upside in the near term even under optimistic conditions.
Recent $XRP price action has drawn comparisons to previous false recoveries, although MVRV data distinguishes the current situation from typical “dead cat bounce” scenarios. The $XRP/$BTC pair also remains within a long-term consolidation range, which has historically acted as a macro reset zone.
According to Happy Coin News, traders on the Polymarket prediction market expect $XRP to remain within the $1.2–$1.4 range by the end of April.
See also: "Bitcoin dips to $71k as US-Iran talks fall through, Hormuz blockade looms"
