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Bitcoin mining difficulty has decreased, but an increase is inevitable
In the Bitcoin network, mining difficulty has dropped to 135.5 T, but it is expected to rise again in the next cycle, reflecting increasing pressure on the crypto mining industry.
Bitcoin mining difficulty chart. Source: CoinWarz
Decline in difficulty and growth forecast
Bitcoin mining difficulty — a key metric that determines how hard it is to add new blocks to the blockchain — has decreased by approximately 1.1% over the past 24 hours. According to CoinWarz, the current level is حوالي 135.5 T. Meanwhile, the average block generation time stands at 9.8 minutes, slightly below the 10-minute target.
Based on CoinWarz estimates, the next difficulty adjustment is expected on May 1, 2026, at 16:24:54 (MSK). The metric is projected to increase from 135.59 T to 137.43 T. About 1,865 blocks remain until recalculation, equivalent to roughly 12 days, 18 hours, and 41 minutes. This indicates a gradual recovery in network load and rising competition among miners.
Financial pressure on miners
The past 12 months have been challenging for the mining industry. Reduced block rewards after the halving, rising electricity costs, a prolonged bear market, and geopolitical risks have created a difficult economic environment.
The situation became particularly severe in Q1 2026, when public mining companies were forced to sell record amounts of Bitcoin. According to TheEnergyMag, companies such as MARA, CleanSpark, Riot, Cango, Core Scientific, and Bitdeer sold more than 32,000 BTC in total.
This exceeds the volume sold in Q2 2022, when about 20,000 BTC were liquidated during the Terra-Luna collapse, which triggered a prolonged bear market.
Total sales in Q1 2026: over 32,000 BTC
Previous peak (Q2 2022): about 20,000 BTC
Key players: MARA, CleanSpark, Riot, Cango, Core Scientific, Bitdeer
Miners typically sell part of their holdings to cover operational expenses denominated in fiat currencies. However, the current situation is different because the cost of mining one BTC often exceeds the market price, forcing companies to operate near or below profitability.
Rising share of unprofitable miners
According to a report by CoinShares for Q1 2026, up to 20% of mining companies are operating at a loss under current market conditions. Analysts note that Q4 2025 was the most difficult period for the industry since the April 2024 halving.
A key pressure factor was the sharp decline in Bitcoin’s price in 2025, when it fell from $125,000 to $86,000. At the same time, network difficulty continued to rise, increasing computational costs.
AI perspective
The situation reflects a classic “energy Darwinism” effect, where each fluctuation in difficulty acts as a filter for the industry. The current cycle resembles past events, where temporary relief in mining conditions preceded the elimination of weaker players. Historical patterns show that periods of массових reserve sell-offs by public companies often lay the groundwork for the next major market trend shift.
See also: "Miner Mined a Bitcoin Block with 1-in-300-Year Odds — Here’s How Much He Earned"
