Analysts predict the end of the bearish trend for Bitcoin treasury companies’ stocks

Standpoint

Shares of companies holding Bitcoin reserves may be approaching the end of a period of value decline. This followed a statement by an investment firm announcing the closure of its short position against Strategy, the largest Bitcoin-holding corporation.

Kynikos Associates founder James Chanos said on Sunday that his investment firm closed its short position in Michael Saylor’s Strategy stock and its long Bitcoin position at the start of Friday’s trading session.

The Bitcoin Bond Company CEO Pierre Rochard responded that the bear market for Bitcoin treasury stocks is gradually coming to an end. Chanos noted that Strategy’s stock had fallen about 50% from its 2025 high, and the company’s mNAV ratio had declined to 1.23x. He wrote in a memo that it was prudent to close this trade when mNAV falls below 1.25x, given its drop from around 2.0x back in July 2025.

Chanos added that MSTR’s implied premium — the difference between its market valuation and the value of its holdings of 641,205 BTC — had fallen from about $70 billion in July to $15 billion. This suggests the company is now being valued more fairly. Although MSTR may face further mNAV compression, especially if it issues more common stock, Chanos believes the main idea of the trade has already played out. Rochard called this a signal of a trend reversal.

Source: Pierre Rochard

Shares of many of the 200 publicly listed companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets have dropped significantly in recent months. This has led some analysts to question the sustainability of corporate Bitcoin treasury strategies.

MSTR and Metaplanet have fallen sharply since midyear

Strategy suffered the most in value terms. Its market capitalization fell by more than 43% — from $122.1 billion in July to $69.5 billion as of Friday. Metaplanet, one of the best-performing stocks on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in early 2025, similarly saw its market capitalization shrink by 56% since June 21. Other companies that accumulated Bitcoin even had to sell part of their BTC reserves to repay outstanding debt.

Pressure on the crypto market may soon ease

One of the main factors weighing on the market was the U.S. government shutdown. However, several American media outlets reported on Sunday that the Senate had reached an agreement on a budget package to end the shutdown. Bitcoin rose 2% to $106,430 within 50 minutes of the reports. This indicates a possible improvement in sentiment toward the crypto market following the government’s reopening.

See also: "U.S. Fed Governor Discusses the Impact of Stablecoins on the Economy"

#Bitcoin (BTC)

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