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Analytical firm says Bitcoin remains in a bearish trend despite the rally — identifies three levels confirming a bullish trend
Although the recent 19% recovery in the crypto market has led many investors to believe that “the bottom is already in,” leading analytics platform The DeFi Report issued a cautious statement.
Company founder Michael Nadye stated that despite the shift in market sentiment toward a bullish trend, blockchain data and macroeconomic liquidity conditions do not yet support the rally.
Evaluating Bitcoin’s price action since its February lows, Nadye rejected the market narrative that “this time is different and the four-year cycle is over.”
According to the analyst, market cycles are not driven solely by “sentiment,” but by a clearly defined set of factors such as capital formation and investor psychology.
Highlighting the correlation between the global liquidity index and Bitcoin’s price, The DeFi Report noted that Bitcoin typically peaks before liquidity does. Current data suggests that global liquidity is in a downtrend.
Drawing parallels with the 2022 bear market, Nadye pointed out that Bitcoin has not spent enough time below its “realized price” and the 200-day moving average. This suggests that the true capitulation phase may not have occurred yet.
A decline in memecoin activity and trading volumes on decentralized exchanges (DEX), especially on the Solana network, is interpreted as a sign of reduced speculative appetite in the market.
According to the report, Bitcoin needs to overcome several technical barriers to confirm the sustainability of the current rally:
$76,000: the 100-day moving average level.
$81,000: the cost basis for short-term holders.
$85,000–$87,000: if weekly closes fail to hold above this range, the current move may remain a “bear market rally.”
