Bitcoin Failed to Maintain Its Uptrend, but K33 Research Believes the Bottom Is Already In

Although Bitcoin recently climbed above the $82,000 level, the asset failed to establish itself above its 200-day moving average.

This has once again fuelled debate over whether the market has truly reached the bottom of the current cycle.

Despite expectations of further downside, analysts at K33 Research continue to argue that Bitcoin’s February low near $60,000 already marked the bottom of this cycle.

K33 Research: This Cycle Is Different From Previous Ones

K33 analysts stated that the current market structure differs significantly from previous bear-market cycles.

Vetle Lunde, Head of Research at K33, noted that in previous years Bitcoin’s failure to reclaim the 200-day moving average often resulted in another sharp decline.

Those moves were typically driven by:

• excessive risk appetite;
• aggressive leverage usage;
• overheated bullish positioning.

However, according to Lunde, the current cycle is behaving differently.

Slower Growth Could Lead to a More Moderate Decline

Lunde emphasised that the 200-day moving average does not behave identically across every market cycle.

According to him, in 2014, 2018, and 2022, failed breakout attempts above this level were followed by both aggressive rallies and sharp collapses.

This time, however, market behaviour appears more gradual.

“The inability to break above the 200-day moving average led to much sharper declines in 2014, 2018, and 2022. Those years saw both explosive rallies and steep sell-offs. But in this cycle, because the current recovery is slower and more stable, we expect any decline to be more moderate as well,” Lunde said.

The Current Cycle Is Lasting Longer Than Previous Ones

The analyst also pointed to the market’s timing structure.

According to him, 189 days passed between Bitcoin’s breakdown below the 200-day moving average last November and the current retest of that level.

That period is significantly longer than in previous cycles.

From a cyclical-analysis perspective, K33 believes the current structure more closely resembles the moderate bull-market conditions seen in March–April 2025 rather than a short-term recovery inside a classic bear market.

K33 Still Sees $60,000 as the Cycle Bottom

K33 Research continues to maintain its base-case scenario that Bitcoin’s decline to approximately $60,000 in February already represented the deepest correction of the current cycle.

“We continue to believe that the less aggressive bull market observed in 2025 creates conditions for a more moderate bear market in 2026, and that the $60,000 level reached in February marked the bottom of this cycle,” Lunde concluded.

See also: "K33 Research: The Current Bitcoin Bear Market Is Unlike Any Previous Cycle"

#Bitcoin (BTC) #Bullish trend

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