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02/05/26 04:51 UTC-04

Crypto Analyst Predicts the Beginning of a Bitcoin Bull Market

  • Analysis by crypto analyst Ash Crypto suggests that Bitcoin may soon enter a bullish phase, potentially allowing the asset to finish the year above the $86,000 level.
  • This could occur amid a rising stock market combined with ongoing geopolitical tension.

Bitcoin ($BTC) appears to be approaching a potential breakout, as key on‑chain metrics indicate the emergence of a bullish trend.

In April 2026, U.S. equities gained $7 trillion in value, while the S&P 500 rose 11.51% and the Nasdaq advanced 15.48%, marking the strongest monthly performance since 2020 despite continued instability in the Middle East. Such elevated risk appetite in equity markets often supports higher‑beta assets, including $BTC.

Crypto analyst Ash Crypto stated that “a sustained recovery in realized price combined with MVRV stabilization and a move above 1.0 would signal a structural transformation.”

Historically, this combination has marked periods in which weaker holders exited the market while more confident buyers entered, creating the conditions for a substantial recovery.

Statistics indicate that when short‑term holder market value to realized value (MVRV) exceeds 1.0, $BTC has historically delivered average returns of 28% over 30 days and 62% over 90 days across at least the last four market cycles. For example, during the 2021–2025 cycles, STH MVRV values between 1.0 and 1.15 consistently produced gains of 20–25% before profit‑taking pressure emerged near 1.35.

Liquidity rotation from equities further strengthens this pattern. Historically, when stocks recorded double‑digit gains during periods of geopolitical uncertainty, Bitcoin outperformed the S&P 500 by approximately 3.2 times in the following quarter.

Inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs surged by 340% over the week, while Ethereum and selected Layer‑1 networks posted their first positive trading volume since late March.

CoinCodex forecasts that by the end of 2026, $BTC could rise 11.95% to approximately $86,380, representing a gain of around 3.56%, while the broader crypto market capitalization may expand by 61.32% over the next year to reach $4.13 trillion.

Based on these indicators, a confirmed breakout above the current resistance level may occur within 7–14 days, provided that MVRV remains within the 1.0–1.15 range. Initial targets suggest potential Bitcoin gains of 15–22%, while altcoins could appreciate by 30–45%.

See also: "Bitcoin has risen, but experts say a strong bullish signal has not yet been confirmed!"

#Forecast #Bitcoin (BTC) #Bullish trend

Editor: Pereyidenko Ihor
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