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CryptoQuant analysts believe Bitcoin has not yet reached its final bottom
Despite ongoing volatility in the cryptocurrency market, senior analyst at CryptoQuant Julio Moreno believes that Bitcoin has not yet reached its final bottom. According to Moreno, although the market is approaching the “final phase of stress,” the necessary conditions for a bottom formation have not yet been fully met.
The analysis places particular emphasis on the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator, which measures the profits and losses of long-term investors. Moreno noted that this indicator is approaching a critical reversal point but does not yet signal a definitive bottom. He recalled that in previous market cycles, true bottoms were reached when the NUPL of long-term investors turned negative.
Current data indicate a significant decline in the profitability of long-term investors. According to Moreno, returns for this group have dropped from 58% to 3% since the peak in October last year. However, the fact that NUPL remains above zero suggests that the market has not yet fully entered the “capitulation” phase.
The analyst noted that in the past, similar periods of confidence testing could last from 6 to 277 days, emphasizing that the current process may also take time. According to Moreno, a true bottom is formed not only during periods of pressure but also when accumulated investor profits are completely wiped out and turn into losses.
In this context, expectations for a rapid Bitcoin bottom remain limited until NUPL moves into negative territory.
See also: "When will the Clarity Act be adopted? Coinbase explains"
