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Kaiko Research: Bitcoin is passing the midpoint of a bear cycle
According to their estimates, the drop in quotations indicates the end of the market euphoria phase and a transition into a classic bear cycle that may last until the end of the year.
“A 32% decline in Bitcoin has become the deepest correction since the 2024 halving and may indicate that only half of the current bear cycle has passed. On-chain metrics show the market approaching key support levels, on which the preservation of the four-year cycle model will depend,” Kaiko Research noted.
Pressure on the market is confirmed by a decline in trading activity. The total spot trading volume on the largest centralized exchanges decreased by about 30% — from around $1 trillion in October 2025 to $700 billion in November.
Open interest in Bitcoin and Ether futures also declined. Over the past week, the figure fell from $29 billion to $25 billion (–14%), which, according to analysts, reflects the continuation of the correction phase.
Kaiko Research suggests that a bottom may form in the $40,000–$50,000 range, after which the market will move into consolidation.
Earlier, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley stated that the $70,000 level could be considered an opportunity to increase positions.
See also: "Samson Mow: Bitcoin’s short-term dynamics are unpredictable"
