Українська
Русский
English
Opinion: Strategy’s $76,000 average purchase price is a psychological barrier for bulls
- Derivatives data and on-chain indicators suggest a lack of confidence in a bullish trend, as 43% of Bitcoin holders remain at a loss, despite the recent price recovery.
- Traders are facing a psychological barrier around $76,000, which corresponds to Strategy’s average Bitcoin purchase price.
On March 4, Bitcoin ($BTC) reached its highest level in four weeks, signaling potential continuation of positive momentum. The recovery from the February 6 low of $60,000 amounts to a 22% increase.
However, several on-chain metrics and derivatives indicators suggest that bears still hold the advantage.
In particular, the options volatility skew shows a 10% premium for put options over call options.
Under neutral market conditions, the indicator typically fluctuates between −6% and +6%. Such levels were last seen in mid-January, when Bitcoin was trading near $95,000.
30-day Bitcoin options skew on Deribit. Source: Laevitas.ch.
This positioning reflects concerns among professional traders about a potential decline in prices.
A similar situation can be seen in Bitcoin futures markets, where the basis remains below the equilibrium threshold of 5%.
The weakness in derivatives markets is partly explained by a month-long consolidation following the 32% drop during the first week of February.
The lack of bullish conviction even as prices move above $73,000 may be linked to the large share of “underwater coins.”
According to Glassnode, 43% of Bitcoin’s supply is currently at a loss, compared with 30% in January, when Bitcoin was trading near $90,000.
Source: Glassnode.
Traders fear that investors currently at a loss may gradually exit their positions as prices recover.
This could create continuous selling pressure, potentially limiting further price growth.
The Strategy factor
Another psychological factor is Strategy’s average purchase price for Bitcoin.
After its most recent acquisition — which brought its total holdings to 720,737 BTC — the company’s average purchase price dropped to $75,985.
Bitcoin price and Strategy purchase chart. Source: Strategy.
Although Strategy does not face immediate liquidation risk or difficulty servicing interest payments on preferred shares or bonds, bears point out that prices above the average purchase cost enable the company to issue additional securities without diluting existing shareholders.
As a result, market participants seeking to contain the rally have strong incentives to prevent Bitcoin from rising above the $76,000 level.
See also: "Expert points to signs of crypto winter ending and trend reversal"
