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Bitcoin Held Above $76,000, but the Market Is Not Ready for Growth Yet
Bitcoin once again attempted to consolidate above $78,000, but the rally quickly slowed amid worsening macroeconomic expectations in the United States. Pressure intensified following weak guidance from Walmart, rising oil prices, and renewed concerns surrounding the policy of the Federal Reserve System.
Nevertheless, large traders have started reducing short positions and gradually increasing longs. This suggests that the market is not currently expecting a deep collapse in Bitcoin and continues defending the area around $76,000.
Large Traders Began Exiting Shorts
Long-to-short ratio on Binance and OKX. Exchange data.
Position data from Binance and OKX show that the long-to-short ratio has risen to its highest level in roughly two weeks. On Binance, long positions have maintained an advantage for several consecutive days, while traders on OKX have noticeably reduced bearish bets.
This still does not resemble an aggressive bull market. In absolute terms, positioning remains close to neutral. However, the shift in dynamics indicates changing sentiment, as market participants have started cautiously returning to buying after a series of corrections.
The area around $76,000 remains particularly important. This zone currently appears to be the key short-term support level for Bitcoin.
Macroeconomics Continues to Pressure the Crypto Market
The primary issue for Bitcoin remains the condition of the US economy. Walmart released weak guidance for 2027, causing the company’s shares to fall by around 7%.
Walmart CFO John Furner stated that lower-income consumers are facing significant financial pressure. For markets, this is an important signal, as Walmart is traditionally viewed as one of the key indicators of the American consumer’s health.
At the same time, oil continues adding pressure. Brent crude has remained above $95 per barrel for nearly a month amid tensions involving Iran and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. Rising energy prices are fuelling inflation and complicating the task facing the Federal Reserve System.
Markets Are Once Again Fearing Rate Hikes
Just a month ago, traders expected the Federal Reserve System to begin easing policy. The situation has now changed dramatically.
According to interest rate futures markets, the probability of a rate hike by September has risen to approximately 37%. A month ago, this figure was effectively near zero.
This is a negative factor for the crypto market. Higher interest rates make risky assets less attractive, while borrowing costs continue rising. In addition, restrictive Fed policy limits liquidity inflows that previously supported gains in Bitcoin and technology stocks.
ETFs Continue Losing Capital
Institutional demand for Bitcoin also remains weak. Since 12 May, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows of approximately $2.07 billion.
Capital flows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Another warning signal came from the negative Coinbase Premium. The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase traded around 0.1% lower than on major exchanges using USDT pairs. This usually indicates weaker demand from US institutional investors.
As long as ETFs continue losing capital, the market will struggle to build sufficient momentum for a new upward trend.
The Futures Market Has Started Stabilising
At the same time, the perpetual futures market now appears more stable than it did a week ago. Funding rates have returned to neutral levels after sellers previously applied strong pressure to the market.
A funding rate near 7% no longer appears extreme. For comparison, on 14 May short sellers were paying around 13% to maintain positions, signalling a significant imbalance toward bearish bets.
The balance has now started normalising. This does not guarantee further upside, but it suggests the market is no longer pricing in an immediate collapse for Bitcoin.
Why $82,000 Remains a Difficult Target
Despite growing long exposure among large traders, the path toward $82,000 remains challenging. Pressure from macroeconomic conditions, elevated interest rates, and weak institutional demand continues limiting upside potential.
The market is effectively trapped between two scenarios. On one hand, traders are gradually beginning to trust the strength of support around $76,000. On the other, ETFs continue losing capital while the US economy is sending increasingly concerning signals.
Under these conditions, Bitcoin may continue trading within a broad range until a stronger catalyst emerges.
What Comes Next?
The market is currently watching several factors closely: oil prices, actions by the Federal Reserve System, and flows into spot ETFs. These factors will determine whether Bitcoin can return to a sustainable uptrend.
For now, market structure appears cautious rather than panic-driven. Large traders are no longer betting as aggressively on further declines, while the $76,000 zone continues holding.
However, for a полноценный move toward $82,000, the market will likely require a return of institutional demand and easing pressure from the US macroeconomic environment.
See also: "XRP Price Forecast: Bearish Pressure Builds as Flows and Momentum Diverge"
