Traders See $61,000 as Bitcoin’s Last Barrier Before a Drop Into the Upper $50,000 Range

Trading

At 8:30 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT) on 4 June 2026, Bitcoin was trading at $63,444, with its Relative Strength Index (RSI) at just 17, while all 14 tracked moving averages pointed lower. As a result, the swing low at $61,310 became the focus of every active trader. The technical picture is clearly bearish on the daily, 4-hour and 1-hour charts, although oscillator readings pointing to deep oversold conditions keep the possibility of a short-term rebound alive.

Key Takeaways

• On 4 June 2026, Bitcoin’s RSI fell to 17, with the swing low at $61,310 acting as the last clear support before the $58,000 mark.
• All 14 moving averages signal a bearish trend, placing $BTC $7,000–18,000 below key trendlines.
• Traders need a 4-hour close above $64,500 for any rally to be credible and capable of reaching the $67,000–70,000 resistance zone.

1-Hour Chart: Relief Bounce Stalls, Structure Remains Bearish

The 1-hour chart shows that Bitcoin made a brief rebound from the $61,310 low, but the move lost momentum around $64,500. Since then, the price has pulled back towards the $62,000–63,000 zone, printing a lower high in the process.

This sequence — a lower high followed by a return towards previous lows — clearly keeps the short-term structure in the hands of sellers. Until buyers can break above $64,500 on the 1-hour chart and hold it, technical analysts will view any bounce as a counter-trend move rather than evidence of a genuine reversal.

1-hour $BTC/USD chart from Bitstamp on 4 June 2026.

4-Hour Chart: Every Rally Ends in Selling, One Candle Wick Offers Hope

The 4-hour chart shows a classic stair-step decline. Lower highs and lower lows have defined the entire recent structure, and every bounce attempt has met fresh selling. One notable detail on the 4-hour chart is the long lower candle wick formed near $61,310, indicating that buyers did defend this level with some conviction. This was likely a combination of short covering and dip buyers entering near the swing low. This candle wick is the only constructive signal on this timeframe. However, no higher high has formed to confirm a trend change. Technical analysts need to see a 4-hour close above $64,500, followed by a clear breakout above $67,000, before treating any rally as more than a “dead cat bounce”.

4-hour $BTC/USD chart from Bitstamp on 4 June 2026.

Daily Chart: Distribution Phase Confirmed by Volume

The daily chart shows that Bitcoin peaked near $82,800 and has since recorded a series of lower highs, while selling volume has increased throughout the decline. Rising red volume during a downtrend is a bearish confirmation signal, suggesting that selling has moved beyond ordinary profit-taking and into more aggressive distribution. Former support in the $76,000–77,000 range has turned into resistance. The $70,000 level now serves as a psychological ceiling, while $61,310 marks the current swing low and the $58,000–60,000 range represents the next meaningful support zone below it. The daily structure will not become constructive until $BTC reclaims at least the $70,000–72,000 area.

Daily $BTC/USD chart from Bitstamp on 4 June 2026.

Oscillators: Extreme Oversold Readings With Dynamic Sell Pressure

The oscillator panel is mixed but leans cautious. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 17, deep in oversold territory. The Stochastic is at 4, which is also a historical extreme. The 20-period Commodity Channel Index (CCI) registers -241 and is the only oscillator generating a bullish signal. Against these extreme oversold readings, the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicator with 12/26 settings shows -3,059 and signals a bearish trend, while the 10-period Momentum indicator shows -14,743, also signalling negative sentiment.

The Awesome Oscillator stands at -8,103 and shows a neutral signal. The full oscillator summary points to a neutral trend, with three sell signals, six neutral readings and two bullish signals. However, the magnitude of the MACD and Momentum readings reflects significant negative pressure beneath the surface.

Moving Averages: 14 Out of 14 Are Lower, Price Is $13,000 Below the 200-Period EMA

The moving-average panel leaves no room for ambiguity. All 14 tracked averages, from the 10-period exponential moving average (EMA) to the 200-period simple moving average (SMA), are in negative territory. The EMA 10 is at $69,682, while the SMA 10 is at $70,891, roughly $7,400–8,400 above the current price. The gap widens over longer periods: the EMA 200 stands at $80,464, while the SMA 200 is at $78,928, placing Bitcoin $16,000–18,000 below its longest-duration trendlines.

This configuration confirms the prevailing downtrend structure across all meaningful timeframes. For bulls, the nearest important upside level is reclaiming $64,500 with volume, followed by a dense cluster of moving averages beginning around $70,000. For traders leaning bearish, a break below $61,310 opens a technical path to $58,000 and potentially $55,000.

Bullish Takeaway

Bitcoin’s RSI at 17 and Stochastic at 4 reflect historically extreme oversold conditions that have preceded sharp mean-reversion rebounds in previous cycles. The long lower wick at $61,310 on the 4-hour chart shows that buyers are firmly defending this level. If $BTC holds above $61,310 and reclaims $64,500 on volume, a recovery rally towards $67,000–70,000 becomes a likely short-term scenario.

Bearish Verdict

Each of the 14 tracked moving averages signals a sell, $BTC is more than $16,000 below its 200-period EMA, and daily volume is rising on bearish candles, pointing to active selling rather than orderly profit-taking. The MACD at -3,059 and Momentum at -14,743 confirm that negative pressure has not yet exhausted itself. A decisive close below $61,310 opens the technical path to $58,000 and then $55,000, with no moving-average support between the current price and that zone.

See also: "Bitcoin Price Forecast: Can BTC Recover Above $66K Amid Renewed Market Activity?"

#Bitcoin (BTC) #Analitycs

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