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A quarter of all bitcoins were purchased at prices above the current level. Glassnode report
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) on December 4 at 18:50 MSK was around $93,000. Since the beginning of December, the rate has gained about 3%, but from the peak of around $126.2 thousand reached in early October, the price has fallen by more than 25%.
In November, quotations declined by 17.7%. Since mid-November, the BTC price has been moving in a range below $94,000 and has twice fallen below $84,000.
Glassnode sums up all presumed Bitcoin purchase prices by investors and derives an average or baseline price level. By “buying” or “selling” Bitcoin, Glassnode means any movement of bitcoin on the Network, and it calculates the purchase price based on the moment the coins are transferred. For example, if a user topped up their Bitcoin address with 1 BTC at a time when Bitcoin was trading at $120,000, Glassnode will treat that as a purchase at $120,000. In this way, they determine how many bitcoins were bought above or below the market price.
As of today, about a quarter of all coins have been purchased at prices above the market level, which is a rather rare phenomenon in the crypto market.
The chart visualizes the prices at which bitcoins currently in circulation were bought or last moved. Miner coins are excluded from the calculation. Source: Glassnode
In the current situation, Bitcoin’s price is balancing between the risk of further decline and a potential reversal upward, according to Glassnode. They also believe that until the price reaches $106,000, the market structure will remain extremely sensitive to macroeconomic stress.
Experts note that the last time such a picture was observed was in 2022, at the onset of one of the harshest bear periods in the crypto market. Despite the noticeable similarity, the capital inflow dynamics into Bitcoin “remain slightly positive.” Glassnode writes that this explains why Bitcoin’s price is holding around $90,000.
Exchange-traded funds
Although experts note weak but still present demand for Bitcoin, they also point to negative trends in U.S. Bitcoin-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have faced a noticeable deterioration in capital inflows.
“The outflow of funds was widespread among all issuers, indicating a cautious stance of institutional participants amid worsening market conditions,” Glassnode clarified.
Aggregate capital flows into Bitcoin ETFs show a negative trend. Out of seven trading weeks since October 13, only two ended with a positive inflow of capital. According to Sosovalue, outflows exceeded $4 billion during this period.
Nevertheless, experts interviewed by RBC-Crypto lean toward a positive forecast for Bitcoin’s price at the end of 2025 at around $100,000. And two major asset managers, Grayscale and Bitwise, in their early-December market review reports, also stated that growth is likely to continue, while noting short-term risks for the price.
See also: "Ethereum Purchases Fell by 81% in November — Bitwise"
