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Analysts Expect a “Santa Rally” Amid New Trump Stimulus and Fed Policy Shifts
- Experts believe December could be a festive month for Bitcoin.
- They predict a “Santa Rally” fueled by the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance and new stimulus measures from President
- Donald Trump — particularly the proposed “tariff dividend.”
The crypto market is preparing for a potential “Santa Claus rally” — a traditional December upswing that, according to analysts, could be amplified by strategic accumulation, expectations of monetary easing by the Fed, and new economic initiatives in the U.S., CoinDesk reported.
According to Coinglass, Bitcoin finished five of the last ten Decembers in positive territory, with returns ranging from 12% to 47%.
This seasonal pattern — the “Santa Rally” — often occurs at year’s end, when investors show increased optimism and the low liquidity of the holiday period amplifies price swings.
“We’re witnessing a shift from panic selling to strategic accumulation by long-term investors. […] This recovery path, supported by expected Fed rate cuts and growing institutional adoption, sets the stage for a strong Christmas rally,” said Nick Ruck, Director at LVRG Research, in a Telegram comment.
One factor that could support the positive trend is President Donald Trump’s proposal to distribute $2,000 to each U.S. citizen as a ‘tariff dividend,’ along with introducing a 50-year mortgage to improve housing affordability.
“President Trump proposed a new stimulus in the form of a $2,000 tariff dividend directly to the U.S. population, as well as a new 50-year mortgage to enhance housing affordability,” said Augustine Fan, Head of Research at SignalPlus.
He added:
“Such ‘tariff dividends’ resemble COVID-era stimulus payments — essentially a direct and effective money print. At the same time, ultra-long mortgages increase the system’s leverage. Both measures should be viewed as liquidity easing — and the market is already responding accordingly.”
Analysts believe these steps could increase liquidity in the financial system and positively affect risk assets, particularly cryptocurrencies.
Some experts note that Bitcoin’s volatility in 2026 will remain high but is now driven by structural changes in global liquidity, institutional flows, and derivatives markets, rather than retail speculation.
“Bitcoin volatility in 2026 is likely to remain structurally elevated, but for different reasons than in previous cycles. We’re seeing its evolution — it’s no longer about speculative frenzy, but about the interplay between institutional flows, liquidity, and derivatives positioning in a tighter financial environment,” explained Rachel Lin, CEO and co-founder of SynFutures.
She also noted that Bitcoin’s correlation with U.S. liquidity remains around 0.6–0.7, meaning any pause or reversal in central bank easing in 2026 could quickly restore price swings.
In October, Bitcoin fell 3.7%, breaking the “Uptober” trend for the first time since 2018.
The main factor was the market crash overnight between October 10 and 11.
Meanwhile, CryptoQuant reported that long-term holders sold about 405,000 BTC in October, while accumulating addresses bought 50,000 BTC on November 5 alone.
Experts noted that if historical seasonality repeats and Trump’s “tariff dividend” truly injects new liquidity, December could again bring festive optimism to the crypto market — as the year’s skepticism turns into euphoria ahead of a new cycle.
As of November 5, Bitcoin’s price dropped below $100,000.
At the time of writing, the asset trades at $103,070, according to TradingView.
See also: "Solana ETFs attract over $350 million in 11 days"
