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Below $1 This June? Bollinger Bands Are Signaling Trouble
The close of XRP's May monthly candle has officially shattered investor optimism, creating a classic bearish setup just as summer begins. The technical compression of Bollinger Bands on XRP's higher time frames on TradingView, combined with on-chain data, suggests that the token's price risks falling below the psychological $1 level in the coming weeks.
The main trigger behind the worsening outlook was XRP closing below the middle Bollinger Band on the monthly chart, which now acts as resistance at $2.0710. According to the indicator's rules, the longer the price remains below this level, the clearer the path becomes toward testing the lower band, located at $0.9671.
XRP monthly chart with Bollinger Bands. Source: TradingView.
The situation is further worsened by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). It fell to 44.36 and confirmed a bearish divergence, indicating clear weakness among buyers.
The weekly time frame only reinforces this negative trend, as the three-month spring consolidation ended with a downward breakdown toward $1.3033. The price is now pressing directly against the lower Bollinger Band on the weekly chart at $1.1810. In technical analysis, this type of pressure following a prolonged period of calm often signals the beginning of a strong impulsive decline.
Inside XRP’s Massive Retail Capitulation
The current breakdown was amplified by panic within the network itself. Analysts at Santiment recorded a rapid liquidity cycle at the end of May, when an inflow of 22.8 million XRP was quickly followed by an outflow of 25.24 million XRP.
Market participants were aggressively selling their holdings at the lowest prices seen in the past 15 weeks, causing XRP's average cost basis to fall to levels last seen in December 2020. As a result, the average active market participant recorded an estimated net loss of about 47% over the past month.
Historical seasonality also points to a difficult period ahead, as June has traditionally been a negative month for XRP, with an average decline of 4.87% and a median drop of 8.20%.
However, the statistics also indicate a high probability of significant volatility during the summer, as historically weak Junes are often followed by strong green Julys with an average gain of 10.2%, after which the market typically returns to a sideways range in August.
The only support for bulls at the moment is the extreme level of fear, where local bottoms often form. If large investors decide to absorb the selling pressure from panicking retail traders, XRP could still stage a technical rebound toward $1.37 and $1.40.
Otherwise, the Bollinger Bands may continue pulling the price toward the final medium-term target at $0.9671.
