Bitcoin balances around $70,000 amid rising risk of a 35% U.S. market crash

Veteran strategist Ed Yardeni has raised the probability of a U.S. stock market crash this year. This is driven by oil prices rising above $100, the strongest dollar rally in a year, and the expansion of the Iran conflict into Saudi Arabia.

Bitcoin is holding up better than expected.

At the time of publication, the largest cryptocurrency was trading at $70,048.28, posting a 3.16% gain over the past 24 hours.

Among other major cryptocurrencies:

• Ethereum rose to $2,043.29 (up 1.65%)
• XRP increased to $1.38 (up 2.32%)
• Solana climbed to $86.66 (up 2.87%)

S&P 500 futures fell more than 4% during Asian trading. The VIX volatility index reached its highest level since the tariff-driven turmoil in April. Oil remains above $100, while the U.S. dollar posted its strongest weekly gain in a year.

Meanwhile, strategist Ed Yardeni raised the probability of a U.S. market crash to 35%, up from 20%, while sharply lowering the probability of a strong rally to just 5%.

“The U.S. economy and stock market are caught between Iran and a hard place,” Yardeni wrote. “If the oil shock persists, the Fed’s dual mandate will face rising risks of higher inflation and increasing unemployment.”

In the event of a market crash, risk assets usually decline as investors pull capital out of volatile assets and move funds into cash, Treasury bonds, or the U.S. dollar.

Historically, Bitcoin has not been immune to such dynamics — it has fallen alongside stocks during every major risk-off episode since 2020, despite its reputation as a safe-haven asset.

Meanwhile, NYDIG research head Greg Colapolo proposed an approach in a Friday note to analyze Bitcoin price movements relative to U.S. equities.

Colapolo noted that the recent parallel movement between Bitcoin and U.S. software stocks reflects “shared exposure to the current macroeconomic regime,” rather than structural convergence.

Statistically, only about 25% of Bitcoin’s price movements are explained by correlation with equities. The remaining 75% are driven by factors unrelated to traditional stock indices, he said.

The overall outlook for the stock market remains bleak. The global MSCI equity index fell 3.7% last week, with Asian markets hit the hardest. South Korea has still not fully recovered from a record two-day drop.

Hedge funds are increasing short positions in U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose by six basis points, as traders price in higher inflation due to the oil shock.

The United States has performed better than most countries in the stock market: the S&P 500 fell only 2% last week, partly thanks to the country’s energy self-sufficiency, which protects the U.S. market more than Asian or European markets.

However, the 2% drop in futures on Monday suggests that this protective advantage may be weakening.

See also: "Bitcoin recovers above $70,000 after Trump’s statements"

#Bitcoin (BTC)

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