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Bitcoin Falls Below $71,000 as U.S.-Iran Talks Collapse
Bitcoin dropped to a seven-week low as hopes for a ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran began to fade, while oil prices surged sharply higher.
1-week BTC/USD chart and 200 EMA. Source: Bitstamp.
The Iran Factor Weighs on BTC
According to Bitstamp data, Bitcoin's price fell to $70,650. The decline was triggered by the collapse of negotiations on a 60-day ceasefire between the United States and Iran — an agreement that U.S. President Donald Trump had said was close to being finalized just days earlier.
The Kobeissi Letter noted on X that the rhetoric changed dramatically: only nine days ago, Trump stated that a deal would be reached "very soon." However, Iran has now officially withdrawn from all negotiations and threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, two of the world's most important oil shipping routes.
The commodity market reacted immediately. U.S. WTI crude oil futures climbed toward $95 per barrel, bringing inflation concerns back into focus. Meanwhile, stock indices avoided a major sell-off, with equity markets continuing to respond relatively calmly to the tensions surrounding Iran.
Manufacturing PMI Failed to Support Bitcoin
May's ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 54%, slightly below forecasts but 1.8 percentage points higher than April's reading. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) emphasized that an index reading above 47.5% over an extended period signals overall economic expansion, and May marked the nineteenth consecutive month of growth.
However, Bitcoin failed to respond positively to the economic data, as geopolitical concerns outweighed macroeconomic optimism.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels the Market Is Watching
Trading account Cryptic Trades pointed out that Bitcoin is currently testing a daily time-frame support level at $71,800. According to the analyst, holding above this zone is necessary to preserve the bullish outlook. Otherwise, both the market structure and the uptrend would be invalidated.
1-day BTC/USD chart. Analysis: Cryptic Trades.
Analyst Rekt Capital believes Bitcoin has encountered resistance near the 2024 all-time high around $73,800. If the cryptocurrency fails to reclaim this level quickly, a retest of the 2021 all-time high at $69,185 becomes increasingly likely.
As a result, previous highs are shifting from support into resistance — a classic signal of a developing downtrend that market participants are closely monitoring.
1-month BTC/USD chart. Analysis: Rekt Capital.
Bitcoin is currently facing pressure from both geopolitical and technical factors. The oil price shock has intensified inflation concerns, while key support levels have failed to hold. Future price action will largely depend on developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict and whether Bitcoin can reclaim the area around its 2024 highs.
AI Opinion
This year's historical pattern has already been documented with remarkable precision: when the U.S. military operation against Iran began in late February, Bitcoin plunged to $63,000 within hours before rebounding to $68,200. The entire "fear → buy-the-dip" cycle lasted less than a week.
The current collapse of ceasefire negotiations mirrors the same structure but under fundamentally different circumstances. Bitcoin has already exhausted the "first-shock effect" and now reacts to each diplomatic twist more as a routine market event than as an extraordinary crisis.
See also: "Bitmine, an Ethereum-Focused Asset Management Company, Continues Expanding Its ETH Portfolio"
