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Bitcoin Hits 10-Week High and Breaks Above $78,000
Bitcoin’s price surpassed the $78,000 mark, reaching its highest level in the past ten weeks. The rally was driven by easing geopolitical tensions and two consecutive record closes of the S&P 500 index.
1-week $BTC/USD chart and 200 EMA. Source: Bitstamp
Bitcoin reached $78,384 on Bitstamp — a level not seen since early February. Risk assets in general are showing a strong recovery: geopolitical risks, including instability in oil markets, are gradually being priced in. Additional momentum came from the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, which boosted investor sentiment. On April 16, the S&P 500 closed above 7,050 points for the first time in history — marking its second record close of the week.
1-week S&P 500 index chart
Declining Volatility as a Catalyst
Crypto trader and founder of MN Consultancy, Michaël van de Poppe, highlighted a key factor for further growth: declining macroeconomic volatility. According to him, stabilization of the VIX index and reduced fluctuations in oil and gold markets are creating conditions for increased capital inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Investors who previously avoided Bitcoin due to macro instability are now gaining opportunities to increase exposure as markets normalize.
This hypothesis is supported by data from the UK-based investment firm Farside Investors: net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $330 million this week. Van de Poppe also believes that altcoins and Ethereum will follow Bitcoin’s lead. His forecast: within 2–4 weeks, BTC could reach the $85,000–$88,000 range.
1-day $BTC/USD chart. Analysis: Michaël van de Poppe
$72,800 as a Key Level
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital focused on the upcoming weekly candle close. According to him, $72,810 is a “key” weekly resistance level that Bitcoin must hold as support in case of a pullback. He notes that in mid-March, when BTC rejected a similar resistance level, the market lost it as support, causing the price to return to a lower trading range. A daily close below $72,810 during a pullback could repeat this scenario.
1-day $BTC/USD chart. Analysis: Rekt Capital
Bearish Warning
Not all market participants are optimistic. Trader Roman points to declining trading volumes as price approaches highs — a classic sign of weakening momentum. According to him, Bitcoin remains in a macro downtrend: historically, high volume in such conditions signals continuation downward, while low volume indicates consolidation before the next directional move. He does not rule out that the next high-volume move could be to the downside.
1-day $BTC/USD chart. Analysis: Roman
Bitcoin has recovered to 10-week highs amid rising stock indices and easing geopolitical tensions. A weekly close above $72,810 would confirm the strength of the rebound, while continued decline in volatility across traditional markets could support further growth toward $85,000–$88,000.
AI Opinion
Analysis of historical patterns reveals an interesting insight: a decline in the VIX index alone is not sufficient for sustained Bitcoin growth — the duration of the decline matters. In 2023–2024, periods of low volatility in traditional markets did precede BTC rallies, but there was typically a lag of several weeks between VIX stabilization and actual capital inflows into Bitcoin instruments. In other words, even if the optimistic scenario plays out, this lag could push the move toward $88,000 beyond the projected 2–4 week timeframe.
See also: "Iran Opens the Strait of Hormuz, Trump Thanks Them! Bitcoin (BTC) Rises While Oil Prices Fall"
