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Bitcoin overcame a decline below $100,000: market outlook
The recent drop in Bitcoin’s price below the $100,000 mark became a significant test for investors and market resilience. The largest cryptocurrency quickly recovered. This confirmed a new psychological level of support. Analysts agree. Short-term fluctuations do not change the long-term trend. It remains unchanged and potentially bullish. Most experts point to the pressure from the U.S. government shutdown.
PlanB’s opinion: mid-cycle
PlanB — the author of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model — interprets the correction as a pause in the middle of the cycle. Bitcoin has held above $100,000 for six consecutive months. This means a shift from a resistance level to a support level.
He claims the market has not yet reached a state of euphoria, as the RSI remains around 66 — significantly below the overheated levels above 80 seen in previous cycles.
PlanB forecasts growth within the $250,000–500,000 range, provided that the price continues to deviate from the realized price — a feature typical of sustainable bull markets.
Arthur Hayes’ opinion: hidden quantitative easing
Arthur Hayes links Bitcoin’s short-term weakness to the tightening of U.S. dollar liquidity. Since the U.S. debt ceiling was raised in July, the General Treasury Account (TGA) has significantly increased, leading to a withdrawal of liquidity from markets.
However, he foresees a reversal: once the U.S. government resumes operations and begins spending from the TGA, it will mark the beginning of “hidden quantitative easing.”
According to him, the Federal Reserve will indirectly increase liquidity through permanent repo operations, expanding its balance sheet without officially announcing quantitative easing.
His wording: “When the Fed starts cashing politicians’ checks, Bitcoin will rise.”
Raoul Pal’s opinion: upcoming liquidity inflow
Raoul Pal’s liquidity model reflects a similar pattern. His Global Macro Investor (GMI) Liquidity Index, which tracks global money and credit supply, continues a long-term uptrend.
Pal describes the current phase as a “Window of Pain,” where tight liquidity and investor fear test their conviction. Nevertheless, he expects a sharp reversal soon.
Treasury spending will inject between $250 and $350 billion into markets, quantitative tightening will end, followed by interest rate cuts. As global liquidity rises — from the U.S. to China and Japan — Pal states: “When this indicator rises, everything rises.”
Current forecast: accumulation phase before expansion
Based on various models, the conclusion is clear: Bitcoin has overcome a liquidity-driven correction. Large holders continue to accumulate, technical support remains intact, and macroeconomic conditions point to a recovery in liquidity.
Short-term fluctuations may persist amid fiscal and monetary restructuring, yet structurally, the next phase favors gradual recovery and accumulation.
If liquidity indicators resume growth in Q1 2026, both Hayes and Pal suggest that the next Bitcoin rally may start from the same foundation it recently withstood — the test of the $100,000 level.
Additionally, CryptoQuant data shows that large Bitcoin holders — wallets with balances between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC — added about 29,600 BTC over the past week, equivalent to roughly $3 billion.
Their total balance increased to 3.504 million BTC — the first notable accumulation phase since September. This wave of buying coincided with declining retail sentiment and $2 billion in ETF outflows.
Analysts interpret this divergence as a sign that institutional players are quietly accumulating assets, reinforcing Bitcoin’s support near the $100,000 level.
See also: "Strategy Issues New Euro-Denominated Preferred Shares to Purchase Bitcoin"
