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Bitcoin price action dangerously resembles a pattern that led to a drop to $60,000
Bitcoin’s price movement feels like déjà vu — and that’s a worrying sign.
Looking at price fluctuations since early February, a very specific and concerning pattern is forming, strikingly similar to what we saw between November and January. Ultimately, that setup paved the way for a major sell-off — with the price dropping to nearly $60,000.
What we are seeing is what technical analysts often call a counter-trend rally: a small price rebound within an ongoing downtrend.
Here is the chart. Check the two yellow channels.
Bitcoin daily chart. Source: TradingView.
The first yellow channel on the left shows price action from November 20 to January 20. During that time, Bitcoin traded in a narrow range with a slight upward slope after falling from $100,000. It appeared that the price was recovering, but in reality it was just a pause — or a minor bounce — within a broader downtrend.
Eventually, the price broke below the lower boundary of that trading range. Essentially, the level traders considered the “bottom,” or support level, failed, and by February 6 Bitcoin dropped almost in a straight line from around $90,000 to nearly $60,000.
Now look at the second channel on the right.
In early February, after hitting those lows, Bitcoin again traded in a narrow range with an upward slope, clearly holding between two trend lines.
The similarity to the previous pattern is undeniable. The current rally lacks the explosive momentum seen in November–January. It is a slow, choppy move upward. In technical analysis theory, this is a sign of bullish exhaustion: the market is slowing down, pausing before bears potentially regain control.
What’s next?
Charts are not absolute indicators, and past performance does not guarantee future results. However, traders use them to understand market psychology, and right now they suggest a scenario where participants are “buying the dip” but lack strength and conviction.
If Bitcoin falls below the lower trend line of its current channel — around $65,800 — it could signal a return of bearish control.
The conclusion is that Bitcoin is at a critical decision point. As some expect, if prices break below the channel, the bear market could deepen. If it breaks above, the downtrend may fade, allowing bulls to stage a strong comeback.
See also: "Bitcoin stabilizes near $71K after drop amid rising oil prices"
