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Bitcoin trades 24% below the entry price of new investors — analyst
Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade under significant pressure as recent buyers hold losing positions. According to analyst Axel Adler Jr., the current price of the leading cryptocurrency is approximately 24% below the average entry price of short-term investors.
He believes the market has entered a redistribution phase, which typically follows a period of strong overheating.
Selling pressure
The expert noted that short-term holders have remained in unrealized loss territory for several months.
“The asset price around $67,976 barely matches the cost basis of only the ‘youngest’ investors who bought coins in recent weeks. The main imbalance is concentrated among groups that entered the market between November and February,” he said.
According to the analyst’s calculations:
- investors with a 1–3 month holding period bought the asset at an average price of $86,791;
- investors with a 3–6 month holding period bought it at $99,434.
“They are currently down about 22% and 32% respectively. The aggregated realized price for the entire short-term holder group stands at $88,926,” the analyst explained.
He added that this creates a large supply overhang, as these participants are likely to sell once prices recover to their breakeven levels, limiting further upward movement.
Source: CryptoQuant
Resilience of long-term investors
On the opposite side are long-term holders, whose cost basis appears much more stable.
Adler Jr. explained that the average acquisition price for this group (LTH) is around $52,941.
According to him, this gives them a 28% safety margin relative to current market prices.
“Long-term players remain in a comfortable profit zone and show no signs of forced capitulation. The $52,000–53,000 level currently serves as the lower boundary of the entire long-term market structure. As long as the price stays above this range, there are no systemic threats to the current cycle,” the analyst emphasized.
Conditions for structural recovery
According to Adler Jr.’s analysis, the gap between the cost bases of the two cohorts is about $36,000, which is typical for the late stage of a correction following an overheated market phase.
According to the expert:
- the first signal of easing pressure would be Bitcoin returning to the $70,000–$72,000 range;
- however, a full structural recovery would only be confirmed after a firm consolidation above the $86,000–$89,000 zone.
“This is the breakeven point for the majority of short-term investors. The main risk now is losing the current support level, which could accelerate selling and push the price down toward the levels of long-term holders,” the analyst concluded.
See also: "Bitcoin falls below $70,000 amid the conflict with Iran and CPI data"
