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Bitcoin under pressure from Fed uncertainty, oil and AI slowdown
Bitcoin under pressure from Fed uncertainty, oil and AI slowdown
Bitcoin fell 3% in Asian morning trading and is holding near $77,000 as markets prepare for a week packed with macro catalysts. The move appears to be driven more by caution than by a shift in sentiment.
Singapore-based market maker Enflux said traders are reluctant to push Bitcoin higher ahead of Wednesday’s rate decision and a series of data releases later in the week, including GDP, PCE inflation, and the employment cost index. Together, these will shape expectations for when the Federal Reserve may begin cutting rates in Q3–Q4.
The biggest constraint right now is oil. Brent remains above $100, complicating the inflation outlook and raising the bar for any dovish signal from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
According to Enflux, the market is operating on two competing assumptions: geopolitical tensions will eventually ease, but not quickly enough to influence near-term policy. This has effectively priced out a June rate cut (Polymarket bettors assign a 95% probability of “no change”) and created a more ambiguous backdrop for risk assets.
In this environment, Bitcoin has struggled to break key technical levels. It is trading roughly 4% below its short-term holder cost basis of around $80,700 — a level often seen as a marker of buyer conviction on margin.
A decisive break above this level would likely require a clear Fed signal that oil-driven inflation is temporary. Without it, Enflux expects Bitcoin to trade cautiously after Thursday’s data, with sharper moves driven more by macro data than the Fed statement itself.
Beyond this week, a less obvious force may also shape Bitcoin’s next moves. The Wall Street Journal reported Monday that OpenAI missed key revenue targets, raising questions about AI demand growth.
Publicly traded Bitcoin miners have taken on significant debt and sold portions of their treasuries to pivot into AI data centers — a move seen as more profitable than mining.
A slowdown in this pivot could theoretically reduce selling pressure.
When compute demand is strong, miners have both incentive and funding to expand, often leading to continued BTC sales to finance capex and debt servicing.
But if OpenAI’s miss signals that AI growth may not meet expectations, the dynamic becomes more complex. A slowdown in AI adoption could gradually ease miner-driven selling by removing a key source of supply.
The timing issue is critical: near-term pressure from weaker tech sentiment and risk-off flows in semiconductors and data stocks is likely to hit crypto first, while any relief from reduced miner selling would come later.
In that sense, the AI narrative reinforces Enflux’s broader view: the market is stuck between competing macro forces, and any AI slowdown adds another layer of uncertainty without immediately resolving the key drivers of price.
For now, Bitcoin remains range-bound, waiting for a clearer signal.
