Investors withdrew a record amount of Ethereum ahead of a possible rise

The asset’s price has formed a standard bullish divergence. A similar technical setup previously triggered a price increase of nearly 25% earlier this month.

Currently, the token is trading around $2,140 after a 48% drop from the January high of $3,400. Clearly, conflicting signals from the spot and derivatives markets significantly complicate forecasting further price movements.

Risks of liquidations in the derivatives market

The previous Relative Strength Index (RSI) divergence formed on March 8. At that time, total open interest stood at $9.42 billion. Meanwhile, the aggregated funding rate was at a deeply negative level of -0.017%. This combination of indicators clearly pointed to the dominance of short positions. Subsequent mass short liquidations fueled a strong rally.

The current situation looks completely different. The coin’s price set a new local low on the daily chart between late January and mid-March. At the same time, the RSI recorded a higher low at around 38. This classic divergence fully mirrors the successful pattern seen in early spring.

$ETH RSI Divergence: TradingView

Open interest has increased to $11.04 billion. Meanwhile, the funding rate has risen to -0.005%. The number of short positions has noticeably decreased compared to March baseline levels. The increase in leverage now reflects the dominance of buyers. Therefore, in the event of a price decline, long positions will face significant liquidation pressure.

$ETH Open Interest and Funding Rate: Santiment

Large-scale accumulation by market participants

Weakness in the derivatives market is easily offset by positive on-chain data. On March 19, the net position change reached -533,218 coins across all platforms. Data from the analytics service Glassnode confirms this as the largest one-day outflow in the past two weeks.

Negative values directly reflect that withdrawals exceed deposits. This usually indicates large-scale accumulation. Market participants are actively moving cryptocurrency to cold wallets for long-term storage. The previous divergence was accompanied by an outflow of only 191,554 tokens. As a result, the current figure is nearly three times larger.

$ETH Net Position Change on Exchanges: Glassnode

Maintaining this trend will provide a strong fundamental base. Active buying can offset the fragility of margin contracts. Strong support shifts the focus to price charts. Accordingly, key Fibonacci levels will determine the winner in the current battle.

Technical analysis and price outlook

Indeed, the daily chart shows an ascending channel. It formed after a sharp drop to the February low of $1,740. Buyers unsuccessfully attempted to break the upper boundary of the trend on March 16. This rejection pushed the price back to the middle of the trading range. It is important to consider the risks of continued downward movement when such structures form.

Key resistance is currently located at $2,380. Any sustained growth requires a confident breakout and consolidation above this level. Only such a scenario would fully confirm a channel breakout and the start of a bullish phase.

$ETH Price Analysis: TradingView

Failure to break the $2,380 barrier will make $1,990 the next support level. A drop below this level would immediately open the path to $1,750. This target coincides with the 0.382 Fibonacci level and February lows. Ultimately, regaining initiative will determine the future direction of the trend.

See also: "Capital inflows into spot ETFs exceeded $62 million over the week"

#Ethereum (ETH) #Analitycs

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