Odds of Spot XRP-ETF Approval Drop Sharply from 86% to 62%
Over the past two days, traders on the Polymarket prediction platform have lowered their odds for spot XRP-ETF approval from 86% to 62%.
This sudden decline in confidence was triggered by reports that SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw intends to vote against approval.
However, Bloomberg's leading ETF analyst Eric Balchunas remains unfazed, still estimating a 95% chance of approval.
His confidence may stem from the fact that Crenshaw’s opposition was not unexpected to those closely monitoring the regulatory landscape. She has consistently voted against crypto-related proposals, including recent votes on various exchange-traded products (ETPs).
On July 29, the SEC approved 13 crypto-related votes, including Bitwise Bitcoin and Ethereum funds, with a 3-1 vote.
While Crenshaw’s objections are clear and public, they are unlikely to derail broader ETF approval. Her stance reflects a cautious regulatory approach, particularly toward XRP, and highlights the importance of full commission votes over delegated decisions.
Meanwhile, as debates continue in the U.S., global interest in XRP-ETFs is growing. In Japan, Ripple partner SBI Holdings has already filed an application for an ETF that would include both Bitcoin and XRP.
See also: "Bitcoin Surges Above $117,000 Following Trump’s Executive Order on Retirement Plans"
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