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Polymarket users are betting on Ethereum’s decline by the end of February.
Considering that since the beginning of 2026 Ethereum has fallen by 34.88%, while Bitcoin has lost 23.47% of its value and XRP — 24.59%, Polymarket users do not show clear optimism regarding the ETH price by the end of February and are cautiously betting on a decline.
Although the most expected scenario is an 18% drop to $1,600, the probability of this event as of February 11 was only 29%.
Other forecasts in this market include the $1,400 level with a probability of 14% and $1,200 with a probability of 5%. As for bets on growth, they are much more restrained: reaching the $2,800 level is considered possible with a probability of 5%, and $3,000 — with a probability of 3%.
Possible Ethereum prices by the end of February. Source: Polymarket
Meanwhile, target levels from $4,200 to $5,000 are considered highly unlikely, according to Polymarket traders’ bets, as the probability of their realization is less than 1%.
The lack of belief in cryptocurrency growth in general is easy to explain, as the current downturn has misled many.
On the one hand, there is a widespread view that the downward phase of the digital asset cycle began in October 2025 and will last at least until the end of 2026.
On the other hand, analysts point out that this time the sector’s decline is fundamentally different from previous ones due to the participation of institutional investors, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for major cryptocurrencies, and a more favorable regulatory climate.
These bullish factors have led some experts to assume that the current drawdown is temporary and that digital assets may still reach new all-time highs at the end of 2026.
See also: "XRP is moving toward lower support levels amid “extreme fear”"
