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What is driving the increased probability of Ethereum falling to $1,500?
- The number of bets on Ethereum’s price decline on the Polymarket platform has increased.
- Traders fear a resumption of the bearish trend, which is indicated by technical analysis.
On the Polymarket prediction market, the risk of Ethereum dropping to $1,500 in 2026 has increased by 20%. Why did this happen?
From March 18 to March 20, the probability of $ETH falling to $1,500 rose from 54% to 65%, although this is still 23% below the record level of 84% recorded on February 6 during a sharp dump, when panic hit the market and the cryptocurrency’s price fell below $1,750.
Fluctuations in the probability of Ethereum falling to $1,500
The reason for the increased downside risk for $ETH on Polymarket is the rise in the number of bets placed on this outcome. The fact that such bets are being made can be explained by the risk of a renewed bearish trend, driven by a decline in the RSI indicator on the daily chart.
Previous trends suggest that this indicator will continue to decline until it reaches the oversold zone, although another upward impulse may occur before a collapse.
Change in the RSI indicator on the Ethereum chart
Currently, the main resistance barrier is at $2,133, where the 800-hour exponential moving average is located. Today, bulls managed to hold this level, but if it is broken, the downward movement will accelerate. If it holds, the correction will continue at least to $2,164.
