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12/05/26 08:43 UTC-04

April U.S. CPI Report Sparks Fresh Concerns Over Fed Rate Hikes in 2026

The upcoming release of the April U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report has drawn renewed attention to the Federal Reserve’s next policy move, as financial markets continue pricing in an extended period of high interest rates.

Current expectations among major investment banks suggest that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to begin cutting rates before 2027, while market participants have also started assigning higher probabilities to a possible rate hike later this year. The inflation report is expected to provide additional clarity on whether pressure from energy costs and underlying inflation trends could alter the direction of central bank policy.

According to CME FedWatch data, markets currently price in a 94.6% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged in June, and a 94.6% probability of no change in July. The probability that rates remain unchanged in September stands at 89.2%. However, traders are also pricing in a 5.7% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September, rising to 14% in October and 23.7% by December.

Oil Prices and Energy Inflation Remain Key Factors

Energy prices remain central to the April inflation outlook after Brent crude traded in the $105–$110 range throughout the month. Rising oil prices also pushed average U.S. gasoline prices above $4.50 per gallon by May 8, marking the highest level since July 2022.

Higher fuel prices are expected to contribute to stronger headline inflation in April. At the same time, analysts are assessing whether elevated energy costs are beginning to weaken consumer demand across other sectors of the economy.

U.S. GDP data for the first quarter of 2026 showed that household spending on accommodation and food services declined for a fourth consecutive quarter and remained negative for a second straight quarter.

Markets Focus on Core Inflation and Fed Commentary

Attention has also shifted toward housing inflation and wage-related inflation after recent labor market data showed softer readings. Analysts are monitoring whether easing pressure in these areas could reduce the persistence of supercore inflation.

Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials have further intensified market focus on inflation data. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stated that all interest rate options remain under consideration, including both hikes and cuts. Meanwhile, journalist Nick Timiraos noted that future policy discussions may focus on moving rates toward a “neutral” stance depending on inflation developments.

See also: "Silver Surged 5.56% to $84.77, Outperforming Bitcoin"

#Fed

Editor: Yuliya Soroka
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