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Binance report: “Bitcoin’s net inflation has turned negative”
According to a new report by Binance Research, the global crypto market showed modest growth in March 2026 despite uncertainty driven by U.S.–Iran tensions.
While total market capitalization rose by 1.8%, Bitcoin and Ethereum outperformed traditional assets.
Over the 32 days since the conflict began, Bitcoin gained about 1% and Ethereum 6%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 fell by 8%, SOXX dropped 12%, and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index declined 13%. Gold and silver also dropped by 13% and 22%, respectively, highlighting crypto’s emerging role as an alternative store of value during geopolitical stress.
Institutional demand and market recovery
Binance analysts noted that the market initially experienced a risk-off phase but quickly rebounded thanks to 24/7 liquidity and institutional demand.
Notably, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded four consecutive weeks of inflows, reversing the previous outflow trend. In March alone, net inflows reached approximately $1.2 billion.
Negative Bitcoin inflation
The report also highlights Bitcoin’s supply dynamics. Although around 164,000 BTC are mined annually, approximately 290,000 BTC remain inactive in long-term holdings.
This results in a net inflation rate of -0.21%, indicating that the circulating supply is effectively shrinking over time.
Institutional strategies and accumulation
At the institutional level, Strategy stood out with its aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy.
In March, the company raised $1.56 billion through its STRC preferred equity instrument, covering about 50% of its BTC purchases. Trading volume for STRC surged by 95%, and DeFi products linked to the asset have begun to emerge.
At the same time, long-term holders (LTH) are showing changing behavior. Despite a roughly 46% decline from the October 2025 peak, their holdings have started increasing again since mid-February, suggesting a potential new accumulation cycle.
AI and blockchain integration
The report also explores AI-blockchain convergence. The ERC-8004 identity standard for AI agents has seen rapid adoption, surpassing 162,000 registered agents.
BNB Chain leads with 33.5%, followed by Base (23.5%) and Ethereum (19.5%). However, analysts emphasize that this sector is still in its early stages.
Outlook
Outlook for April will depend on geopolitical developments, global trade conditions, and liquidity dynamics.
According to the report, the crypto market is currently undergoing a “rebalancing” phase that could lay the foundation for a new bullish cycle.
See also: "New details emerge on the Clarity Act — a key crypto bill in the U.S."
