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Hayes explained why Bitcoin’s price rally won’t stop in October
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of the BitMEX exchange, explained why Bitcoin’s price growth will not stop in October 2025.
As Hayes noted, since BTC’s creation in 2009, there have been three major cycles, each culminating in a new all-time high roughly every four years. The latest, fourth cycle began in 2021 and is expected to end in October 2025 — prompting traders to wonder whether the historical pattern will repeat.
Hayes believes that the cycle theory should be discarded, arguing that Bitcoin’s performance is better explained by monetary policy dynamics. After analyzing data on the banking systems of the U.S. and China, as well as the supply of U.S. dollars and Chinese yuan, he concluded that Bitcoin’s growth in past four-year cycles was driven by an expansion of the money supply and a reduction in interest rates — meaning that more fiat currency was issued while its “price,” reflected in borrowing costs, fell.
Consequently, BTC prices tended to decline when monetary policy tightened. However, this year there are no signs of such tightening.
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First, the U.S. federal government is likely to continue cutting the benchmark interest rate to 2%, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant will allow banks to issue more loans to key industrial sectors, thereby expanding the money supply.
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Second, China’s leader Xi Jinping is expected to increase yuan issuance to end deflation and ease economic pressure.
“Listen to the money masters in Washington and Beijing. They are clearly saying that fiat currency will become cheaper and more abundant. Therefore, Bitcoin’s price will continue to rise in anticipation of this likely monetary easing,” Hayes concluded.
See also: "Grant Cardone advised not to rush into selling Bitcoin amid gold rally"
