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A key signal has emerged in Bitcoin’s price this week: according to an analyst, it may indicate the start of a bear market, but it is not yet confirmed
Rafael Policelli Teles, an analyst at the crypto analytics platform Alphractal, shared an important new assessment of Bitcoin’s market cycles.
According to Teles, historical data suggests that a new global downtrend could begin as early as 2026. The analysis highlights that the Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STHRP) and Active Realized Price (ARP) are highly reliable indicators for identifying market cycles.
The Short-Term Investor Realized Price (STI), which measures the average cost basis of short-term investors (those who have transacted within the last 155 days), stands out as a more reliable indicator than traditional moving averages because it is directly derived from blockchain transaction data. The Active Realized Price (ALP), on the other hand, considers only the actively circulating supply, excluding lost or long-inactive coins, thus providing a “cleaner” cost basis for the market.
Together, these two indicators generate signals that strongly confirm trend reversals within Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. A drop of STHRP below ARP is interpreted as the start of a “downtrend (bear market),” while a move above signals the beginning of an “uptrend (bull market).”
The analysis also includes examples from previous cycles. The crossover on November 11, 2022 confirmed a bear market, while the period from January 10 to January 24, 2024 marked the beginning of a bullish trend. The latest data suggests that a new bearish signal began forming during the week of March 22–28, 2026. However, Teles emphasizes that this signal is still in its early stage and requires further confirmation.
The analysis also highlights the importance of “standard deviation bands” in understanding price movement during downtrends. The short-term realized price acts as a global resistance level (“ceiling”), while the “-1.5 standard deviation band” serves as a global support level (“floor”). These bands are derived from the MVRV (market value to realized value) ratio, which measures price deviations relative to the cost basis of short-term investors.
Examining the bear markets of 2018 and 2022 shows that Bitcoin’s price typically breached these levels only briefly and within limited ranges. While price often failed to sustain a move above the short-term realized price, dips below the -1.5 standard deviation band were also generally short-lived. This highlights the critical role of these bands in shaping market behavior.
In the current cycle, Bitcoin is said to have tested the global resistance zone around $98,322 on January 14, 2026, and approached the global support level near $61,439 on February 5, but did not fully reach either level. This scenario is considered a transitional phase, indicating that the market has not yet established a clear direction.
Teles notes that current signals do not yet confirm a full bear market, and a second confirming signal is crucial. In this case, the “true mean market price” indicator will come into play. If it confirms the downtrend, it will clearly signal the onset of a global bear market. Otherwise, the current signal may turn out to be a “false alarm.”
See also: "BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes warns investors: “The market is overly optimistic”"
