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Benchmarks analysts named Bitcoin’s fair value
Experts from data provider CF Benchmarks stated that the fair value of Bitcoin is approximately $136,000, while the actual price does not exceed $71,000.
Despite the growth of the global money supply (M2), Bitcoin has not yet shown comparable dynamics. Since mid-2025, the indicator has increased by about 12%, while the price of the leading cryptocurrency has fallen by nearly 35% over the same period, analysts noted.
Historically, there has been a relationship between Bitcoin and the money supply: growth in M2 was often followed by an increase in BTC. Currently, this relationship has weakened.
Experts cite U.S. monetary policy as the key factor. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is maintaining high interest rates, which limits the inflow of liquidity into risk assets. Under these conditions, Bitcoin reacts more strongly to borrowing costs and market sentiment than to the growth of the money supply.
CF Benchmarks noted that such divergences have occurred before, but were usually temporary.
A similar situation is observed in comparison with the U.S. national debt, which has exceeded $39 trillion. Previously, it was believed that its growth supported Bitcoin’s price, and these indicators moved in sync. Now this relationship has also weakened, increasing market uncertainty, analysts said.
Earlier, Checkonchain founder James Check stated that Bitcoin has moved from a “freshwater pool” to a “saltwater ocean” — to the level of traditional financial markets.
