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Bitcoin Faces a Drop to $55,000 as Analyst Confirms $100,000 Forecast
Bitcoin is testing a key support zone as investors assess whether the $60,000 level will hold. One strategist noted that a downside break could bring the $55,000 mark into focus, while holding support could help preserve the prospect of reaching the $100,000 target by the end of the year.
Key Takeaways:
- A crypto strategist said Bitcoin could return to the $55,000 mark if the $60,000 support level is broken.
- The $55,000 level corresponds to Bitcoin’s realised price and has held during major declines.
- Despite recent pressure, the strategist maintained a $100,000 year-end target for Bitcoin.
Why Bitcoin’s Key Support Zone Could Determine the Market’s Next Move
Bitcoin could return to the $55,000 mark as investors watch whether the key $60,000 support level holds, Matt Mena, senior crypto research strategist at 21Shares, said on 5 June. 21Shares is one of the world’s leading issuers of cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Mena noted that buying interest has repeatedly appeared around $60,000, making this mark a critical low for $BTC. According to him, if this support fails, Bitcoin is likely to return to the $55,000 mark.
The latest decline has pushed Bitcoin into a zone of more unstable sentiment. Mena noted that the $55,000 mark now stands out because it corresponds to Bitcoin’s realised price, or average on-chain cost basis. This level has acted as support during major declines, including the late-2018 crash, the Covid-related crash in March 2020, and the FTX collapse in 2022. Bitcoin also held this zone during the summer of 2024.
The strategist said:
“With more than 50% of $BTC holders now in the red — a level that has historically coincided with cycle bottoms — the $55,000 support level becomes the next key zone to watch for several reasons.”
Why $55,000 Has Become a Level Bitcoin Bulls Cannot Ignore
Pressure on Bitcoin also reflects renewed concern over Strategy (Nasdaq: MSTR) and Michael Saylor. Mena noted that the market had long viewed Saylor’s $BTC purchases as permanent capital. That assumption is now being questioned, weighing on sentiment. He noted that Strategy sold 704 $BTC in December 2022 and bought back 810 $BTC two days later, and said that recent concerns about selling should be viewed in that context.
Macroeconomic conditions add another layer to the market test. The strategist noted that Bitcoin is digesting a stronger labour market report while holding near support at $62,000. In May, the US economy created 172,000 jobs, exceeding expectations of 85,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.3%, and April employment data was revised upward by 64,000. This reduces short-term pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates. Nevertheless, Mena said Bitcoin’s resilience points to its fundamental strength.
Still, he emphasised:
“$100,000 remains our year-end target, and the need for a non-sovereign, censorship-resistant asset that can serve as a potential hedge against debasement is as important as ever.”
The 21Shares strategist said the path to the $100,000 mark has shifted towards the end of the year, as macroeconomic factors define the next stage. He expects Bitcoin to benefit if the conflict with Iran is resolved, energy prices fall, inflation concerns ease, and the Fed regains room to cut rates. These conditions could support a retest of higher resistance levels, especially if $BTC holds its current support despite the jobs data and Saylor-related pressure.
