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Bitcoin Will Not Repeat the 2018 and 2022 Scenarios — K33 Analysts
Fears of a cycle repetition may become a self-fulfilling prophecy, believes Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33. Long-term holders are reducing positions to protect previously earned profits, while new capital is reluctant to enter the market — this increases selling pressure, resembles past downturns, and triggers panic among investors.
However, there are important differences from previous cycles — the use of cryptocurrencies by corporate investors, inflows into regulated products, and the easing of monetary policy in the United States, the analyst listed. He noted multi-billion inflows into exchange-traded crypto products, expanded access to advisory services, and the launch of crypto-related services by banks.
Lunde pointed to indicators that are usually associated with the formation of a market bottom. On February 2, Bitcoin trading volume exceeded $8 billion, and the price returned to the lows of 2025. At the same time, in derivatives markets, open interest and funding rates fell to extremely negative levels, while a wave of long position liquidations amounted to about $1.8 billion. In the past, such a combination often preceded a trend reversal, Lunde assures.
“Over the past two years, Bitcoin has shown nearly zero returns, and we see no urgent need for long-term holders to sell. Since the October peak, Bitcoin has lost about 40%. Just over the past week, the asset fell by 11% amid rising global risk aversion. We view current prices as attractive entry points for investors following a long-term strategy,” the K33 analyst stated.
The expert named the area around $74,000 as a critically important support level. A break below this mark could accelerate the decline: first toward the November 2021 peak (around $69,000), and then toward the 200-week moving average at $58,000.
A new all-time high for Bitcoin may be recorded as early as the end of 2026, suggested Ryan Rasmussen, head of research at Bitwise. The key condition is the return of retail investors to the market.
See also: "Anthony Pompliano: Bitcoin’s Decline Does Not Indicate a Bearish Trend"
