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Bitfinex Analysts Assessed the Bitcoin Market Situation and Its Outlook
According to the latest Alpha report from Bitfinex, Bitcoin failed to hold above the $95,000–98,000 resistance zone and subsequently returned to its established trading range. The correction erased all gains made since the beginning of the year and pushed prices below the year’s opening level, highlighting the fragile balance between buyers and sellers.
The correction coincided with persistent pressure from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Over the past week, total ETF outflows exceeded $1.3 billion. Analysts noted that the scale and consistency of these outflows point to coordinated risk reduction rather than routine fund rotation.
“Without a renewal of ETF inflows, upside attempts are likely to fail,” Bitfinex analysts wrote, adding that institutional demand has “significantly weakened at current price levels.”
On-chain data show that downward moves continue to find buyers, while upward rallies “consistently encounter distribution from previous-cycle buyers,” particularly those who accumulated holdings during the first three quarters of 2025.
Meanwhile, derivatives positioning remains relatively orderly. Following Bitcoin’s January peak, open interest in perpetual contracts declined by more than 4%, or $1.18 billion in notional terms. Analysts described this development as positive from a market structure perspective, despite reduced activity in the spot market.
Options markets present a similar but more nuanced picture. After the recent sell-off, implied volatility for at-the-money weekly options jumped by more than 13 points, while implied volatility for three-month options rose only marginally. This steepening at the front end of the curve suggests tactical hedging rather than broad repositioning.
“After returning to the established $85,000–94,500 range, stronger spot demand is required to support a sustained breakout,” the analysts added.
At present, the market remains in a waiting mode: sellers are active, while buyers are selective.
See also: "Cryptocurrencies Will Start Rising After the Gold and Silver Market Cools Down"
