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Economist suggests the date when Bitcoin’s price could start rising
The odds of Bitcoin appreciating by December stand at 88%, according to economist and Cane Island investment advisor Timothy Peterson. He based his claim on the observation that over the past two years, half of the months delivered positive returns for the leading cryptocurrency.
Peterson identified potential trend reversal points using the number of positive months within any 24-month period. His calculations ultimately led him to conclude that sustained Bitcoin growth will begin on December 22.
However, Peterson’s forecast runs counter to broader statistics. According to CoinGlass, in 2025 Bitcoin posted gains in January, April, May, June, July, and September, while declining in the other six months. Historically, November has been Bitcoin’s strongest month since 2013, with an average return of 41.13%.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which reflects investor sentiment, showed a reading of 9 — indicating “extreme fear” — on Sunday, February 22. Traders on the prediction platform Polymarket assign a 17% probability that December will be Bitcoin’s best month of the year, while November has slightly higher odds at 18%.
Sentiment analytics platform Santiment noted a decline in the number of Bitcoin price forecasts circulating on social media. According to its experts, this suggests a return to “neutral territory,” which they view as a healthy sign.
“Calls for Bitcoin to rise to $150,000–200,000, as well as $50,000–100,000, are fading,” analysts said.
At the same time, Santiment pointed out that overall Bitcoin network activity is decreasing — transaction volume, the number of active addresses, and network growth are all steadily declining.
Spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tied to Bitcoin’s price have recorded net outflows for five consecutive weeks. Over this period, investors have withdrawn about $3.8 billion. In the past week alone, net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs totaled approximately $315.9 million.
