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Expert Analyst Assesses the Current Bitcoin Situation: “An Unfavourable Trend Has Formed”
Benjamin Cowen, one of the leading analysts in the cryptocurrency industry, warned investors in his latest analysis of the Bitcoin ($BTC) and stablecoin markets.
Comparing current price movements with those seen in previous cycles, Cowen suggested that Bitcoin has not yet exited the bear market and that further declines may still lie ahead.
The analyst described the current market structure as an “unfavourable formation”, emphasising the critical relationship between stablecoin dominance and Bitcoin’s price.
Stablecoin Dominance as a Key Signal
In his analysis, Benjamin Cowen examined the overall market dominance of leading stablecoins such as Tether and USD Coin. He noted that over the past two years, stablecoin dominance has formed a very strong base, arguing that such a prolonged structure is unlikely to result in a false breakout.
According to Cowen, this structure in the stablecoin dominance chart strongly resembles the prolonged upward trend previously observed in Bitcoin dominance charts. The analyst argues that stablecoin dominance structurally supports an upward trend, noting that investors’ tendency to move into cash positions remains elevated.
Bitcoin’s Technical Outlook
Assessing Bitcoin’s technical price outlook, Benjamin Cowen recalled that $BTC recently rebounded sharply from its 200-day moving average. Highlighting the similarity between the current setup and previous bear markets, the expert stated:
“Bitcoin once again bounced from its 200-day moving average, just as it did during the 2018 and 2022 bear markets. This rebound wave coincided with stablecoin dominance on the weekly chart briefly falling below the 21-week exponential moving average before recovering. Although there is currently a lot of bullish sentiment and calls for new highs, in my opinion this clearly points to the continuation of the bear market.”
Parallels with the 2018 Cycle
Cowen stated that Bitcoin’s current price fluctuations almost perfectly mirror the cycle observed in 2018. Referring to historical data, the analyst summarised the current situation as follows:
- As in 2018, Bitcoin reached a low in February this year and then formed a higher low in April.
- In May, similarly to 2018, a local peak formed at the 200-day moving average, after which the price reversed.
- During the 2018 cycle, following that May rejection, a sharp decline occurred in June, pushing prices below the February low.
The analyst warned that if history repeats itself, Bitcoin could soon break below the lows recorded in February.
“The Bear Market May Not Be Over Yet”
Benjamin Cowen noted that during bear markets, it is easy to mock those expecting further declines because Bitcoin typically rises slowly before falling very quickly and sharply.
He added:
“Many people believe the bear market is over, but I do not think so. Even if investors do not realise it, we may still be in the early stages of a new breakdown wave. Only time will tell.”
See also: "Bitcoin Market Structure Shows Alarming Signals — Here’s Why"
