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K33 Research: The Current Bitcoin Bear Market Is Unlike Any Previous Cycle
- K33 Research has stated that the current Bitcoin bear market cycle differs significantly from previous downturns.
- Analysts identified what they described as “uniquely pessimistic” sentiment across the derivatives market.
- The company believes Bitcoin’s decline to around $60,000 in February represented the deepest drawdown of the current cycle.
- At the same time, researchers warned about risks linked to elevated open interest and continued outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs.
According to a report cited by CoinDesk, K33 Research analysts said the current Bitcoin bear market differs from the cycles seen in 2014, 2018, and 2022.
Derivatives Markets Show Unusual Levels of Pessimism
K33 noted that Bitcoin’s inability to hold above the 200-day moving average near $83,000 intensified concerns about another leg lower. However, derivatives market data appears to suggest a different scenario.
According to Vetle Lunde, traders remain “uniquely pessimistic”. In his view, this resembles the formation of a market bottom rather than a temporary rally within a broader bear market.
“The current slow recovery has not produced similar dynamics. Instead, derivatives data points to uniquely pessimistic sentiment,” Lunde said.
The report noted that Bitcoin’s 30-day average funding rate has remained negative for 81 consecutive days — one of the longest such periods in market history.
Meanwhile, the annualised premium on CME Bitcoin futures has fallen below 2.5%, which typically signals elevated investor caution.
How This Cycle Differs from Previous Ones
Analysts recalled that during previous bear-market cycles, Bitcoin often staged rapid rebounds towards the 200-day moving average before experiencing sharp sell-offs caused by excessive leverage and aggressive bullish positioning.
K33 believes the market is behaving differently this time because traders are not showing signs of excessive optimism.
Risks Still Remain Elevated
Despite this, the company also highlighted several risks.
In particular, open interest across derivatives markets remains elevated. According to analysts, this could trigger another wave of volatility if Bitcoin prices weaken further.
In addition, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States recorded approximately $1.6 billion in outflows over five trading days.
K33 noted that investors often become more willing sellers once prices recover towards breakeven levels.
Nevertheless, the company’s base-case scenario assumes that Bitcoin’s February decline to roughly $60,000 already marked the deepest correction of the current cycle.
“A less aggressive 2025 bull market creates conditions for a more moderate bear market in 2026,” Lunde concluded.
Wintermute Also Warned About Market Weakness
Earlier, analysts at Wintermute stated that Bitcoin’s recent rally had been driven primarily by leverage and short squeezes rather than genuine spot demand.
They also pointed out that the asset failed to maintain momentum above the 200-day moving average amid worsening macroeconomic conditions.
See also: "Analyst Predicts S&P 500 Could Reach 9000 by the End of 2026"
