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Matt Hougan: Bitcoin Is Set for a Rally — by Analogy with Gold
It is believed that the 65% rise in gold prices in 2025 was driven by purchases made by central banks, which disrupted the balance of supply and demand, the executive said. However, according to Hougan, the real picture is more complex.
In 2022 and 2023, central bank gold purchases surged to more than 1,000 tonnes instead of the usual 400–600 tonnes. Demand was absorbed by sellers, which restrained price growth for several years despite ongoing purchases. Although these purchases altered the supply-demand balance, this was not immediately reflected in prices. Gold rose by 2% in 2022, 13% in 2023, and 27% in 2024. Parabolic growth began only in 2025, several years after the increase in purchases had started.
“In the first few years, demand from central banks was met by people willing to sell their gold reserves. But eventually, sellers ran out of supply. And as demand persisted, prices rose sharply,” Hougan wrote on X.
Drawing an analogy with bitcoin, the chief investment officer of Bitwise noted that since the launch of ETFs in January 2024, these funds have been purchasing more than 100% of new bitcoin supply. At the same time, the price has not yet shown parabolic growth — and according to Hougan, this is because holders of the cryptocurrency are willing to sell their assets. Hougan is confident that demand for ETFs will persist, and sooner or later sellers will exhaust their holdings. At that point, the market could face a sharp surge in the price of BTC.
Previously, Hougan stated that a cycle of interest rate easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) could become the main driver of bitcoin’s growth in 2026.
See also: "Steven McClurg presents an XRP price forecast for 2026"
