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Bitcoin: April 12 overview — sellers are exhausting, while whales are accumulating volume
Key points:
- Bitcoin is trading around $71,700, shifting into local consolidation.
- Key levels: strong support remains at $69,000, while the main resistance zone lies in the $78,000–80,000 range.
- Daily range: $71,310–73,137.
The failure of the U.S. and Iran to reach agreements on several issues triggered a sell-off in risk assets.
What happened to Bitcoin price over the past 24 hours
After recent attempts to break above $73,000, Bitcoin ($BTC) faced strong external pressure. The market was hit by a wave of local sell-offs, causing the asset to pull back to $71,600, losing about 2%.
Hourly chart of $BTC/USDT on Binance. Source: TradingView.
Daily liquidations in the crypto market exceeded $311 million. Over the past 24 hours, positions of 112,688 traders were forcibly closed, totaling $311.28 million. The largest order of $4 million was recorded on Bybit in the $BTC/USD pair.
Liquidated long volume slightly exceeds shorts. Source: CoinGlass.
Key factors influencing Bitcoin price
The current market picture reflects a clash between short-term macroeconomic fear and strong mid-term fundamentals.
Macroeconomics and geopolitics: tension instead of truce
The main driver behind the price decline was the failure of diplomatic settlement in the Middle East. Talks in Pakistan, aimed at ending the six-week U.S. campaign against Iran, reached a deadlock.
U.S. Vice President J. D. Vance confirmed that the parties failed to reach an agreement. He noted that the main obstacle was Washington’s “red lines,” particularly the strict demand that Iran abandon the development of nuclear weapons and related technologies.
Tehran, for its part, insisted on a comprehensive approach, including sanctions relief, resolving the status of the Strait of Hormuz, and reparations payments.
Amid these developments, many investors preferred to reduce risk exposure, which immediately impacted cryptocurrency prices.
On-chain data: seller exhaustion and accumulation
Despite the negative news backdrop, various metrics indicate that bears are losing strength. According to CheckonChain and Glassnode analytics:
- realized losses dropped to about $400 million per day. This marks a steady downward trend compared to panic peaks of $2 billion seen during previous and early-year drawdowns;
- realized profits also fell to 12-month lows (around $300 million per day). Investors who bought near $60,000 are now in profit but are reluctant to sell;
- the realized profit/loss ratio (P/L ratio) rose to 1.4 — the highest level since January.
Realized losses dynamics. Source: Checkonchain.
At the same time, large-scale accumulation of Bitcoin continues. This year, investors purchased around 850,000 $BTC in the $60,000–70,000 range, later withdrawing coins from exchanges to cold wallets.
Source: Crypto Patel.
The resulting supply shortage acts as a buffer, softening the impact of geopolitical shocks on Bitcoin’s price.
Technical outlook
Despite increasing volatility, bulls are likely building strength for the next upward move.
The Sharpe ratio is declining. Historically, drops of this metric to lows during prolonged consolidation periods (especially amid external негатив) have often preceded strong upward trends, suggesting that the current price stagnation may be misleading.
Sharpe ratio dynamics. Source: Rand Group.
Levels:
- support: holding the $69,000 level remains critical for maintaining the bullish structure. Below this level, buyers are expected to aggressively defend the $60,000 zone, where the largest whale demand cluster is formed;
- nearest resistance: bulls need to absorb geopolitical pressure and reclaim the $73,000 level;
- mid-term targets: if selling pressure is successfully absorbed, the next target will be the $78,000–80,000 range.
See also: "Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Holds Rising Channel as $598M ETF Inflows Target $74,000"
