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Bitcoin at $90,000 or $130,000 — which scenario is more likely?
The crypto market is ending September in a state of uncertainty: Bitcoin is hovering in the $110,000–$115,000 range, and analysts debate whether the market is ready for a new wave of growth or another decline is ahead.
Popular crypto blogger Coin22 analyzed the BTC situation and gave his “diagnosis.” Here’s which scenario seems most likely in the near term: Bitcoin at $90,000 or $130,000.
Pressure Factors
According to Coin22, the key driver remains macroeconomics and the US Federal Reserve’s policy. Recent statements by Jerome Powell about possible continued rate cuts increased the probability of two more reductions this year to 70%. However, the market still shows mixed signals:
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Around $30 billion was withdrawn by investors over the past two months;
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Long-term holders recorded a record profit of 3.4 million BTC;
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Whales dumped approximately 147,000 BTC worth $16.5 billion after the August high of $124,000.
Technical Picture
A breakout above $116,000 confirmed the formation of a bearish flag, and Bitcoin lost support from the 50- and 100-day moving averages. The RSI dropped from 61 to 44, indicating increased selling pressure.
The main support zone for bulls is now around $110,000–$112,000, with the nearest support levels at $107,000 and $105,000.
Positive Signals
Despite profit-taking by major players, there are also inflows: Japanese firm Metaplanet recently bought 5,419 BTC, and MicroStrategy added another 850 BTC. In addition, exchange reserves fell to 2.4 million BTC — the lowest since the beginning of the year, reducing selling pressure.
What’s Next
The blogger warns that the next few days will be decisive. The $17.5 billion options expiration and a new inflation report could sharply move the market.
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If Bitcoin holds above $115,000, it could test $120,000–$125,000.
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Losing support risks a drop to $105,000 and even $100,000.
Coin22 calls the current situation a “calm before the storm”: low volatility is reminiscent of 2023 periods when calm preceded hundreds of percent growth. October, which the crypto community calls Uptober (a reference to crypto assets often rising in October), is traditionally considered a “green” month, but without clear catalysts for bullish movement, the market could take the opposite scenario.
Coin22 considers the more likely scenario to be Bitcoin moving down — toward $100,000, and in the worst-case scenario, even $90,000. Growth to $130,000 is not ruled out but is linked to holding above $115,000 and the emergence of strong catalysts, which are currently absent.
See also: "Bitcoin and Ethereum Drop Triggers Nearly $1 Billion in Liquidations"
