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Bitcoin Bull-Bear Indicator Flashes Green as BTC Tests Key Resistance
- Bitcoin’s bull-bear market cycle indicator has entered the “early bull” zone for the first time since March 2023.
- $BTC has recovered 26.54% from the $65K–$59K zone and is now facing resistance between $80K and $85K.
- The RSI at 49.52 shows neutral momentum as traders watch for either a breakout or a rejection.
According to CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_, the Bitcoin bull-bear market cycle indicator has entered the “early bull” zone for the first time since March 2023. The shift comes as the asset trades near a major resistance area after rebounding from its late-March support zone.
Indicator Signals First Early Bull Phase Since 2023
The bull-bear cycle indicator from CryptoQuant has historically marked major changes in market structure. When the indicator exits the bearish zone and enters an early bullish phase, it often suggests that selling pressure has weakened.
Similar signals appeared in 2019 and early 2023 after extended bearish periods. In both cases, market structure later improved as demand strengthened and price momentum recovered.
However, the indicator has not always confirmed sustainable rallies. MorenoDV_ pointed to March 2022 as a key exception. At that time, the indicator also entered the early bull zone, but price was rejected shortly afterward.
CryptoQuant — Bitcoin bull and bear market cycle indicator.
That move eventually marked a local top rather than the start of a stronger recovery. Because of this history, the latest May 2026 signal is being closely monitored alongside price confirmation.
CryptoQuant — example of a failed early bullish signal in 2022.
$BTC Faces Critical Resistance Test at $80K–$85K
From a technical perspective, $BTC recently rebounded from the late-March support range between $65K and $59K, where buyers previously stepped in aggressively. The recovery pushed the asset up 26.54% toward the key resistance area between $80K and $85K.
This resistance zone now represents the main test for Bitcoin’s next move. It also closely aligns with the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level, where price is currently struggling to break higher.
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TradingView — Bitcoin technical chart showing support and resistance zones.
A confirmed breakout above the $80K–$85K range could strengthen bullish momentum. In that case, the next major target would be the $94K–$98K region, near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, representing a potential additional gain of roughly 17%–21%.
At the time of publication, $BTC was trading around $80,643, down 0.47% over the past 24 hours. Trading volume also declined by 10% to $30.23 billion, indicating reduced market activity as traders monitor the resistance zone.
Neutral RSI Leaves Market Direction Open
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 49.52, placing the Bitcoin market near neutral conditions. This suggests that the asset is currently neither overbought nor oversold.
This neutral reading leaves room for movement in either direction. A stronger breakout above resistance would support continued recovery, while another rejection could shift focus back toward lower support levels.
The 23.60% Fibonacci level near $75,587 may serve as mid-term support. If selling pressure intensifies, Bitcoin could revisit the deeper demand zone between $65K and $59K that supported the rebound in late March.
For now, Bitcoin’s early bullish signal has improved the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, price confirmation within the $80K–$85K resistance range remains the key factor determining whether the recovery continues or another rejection occurs.
See also: "Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Holds Above $80K Amid Bullish Breakout Toward $86K"
