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Bitcoin correction reaches 35%: traders expect a bottom around $70–75K
Bitcoin tested the $82,000 level for the first time in 234 days, recording a 32% decline from its all-time high reached on October 6. The drop of the leading cryptocurrency on November 20 reached 5.5%, while Ethereum fell below $2,700, losing 45% from its August 24 peak.
1-day BTC/USD chart. Source: Bitstamp
Comparison with previous cycles
Trader Daan Crypto notes that the current correction now matches previous major drawdowns of this cycle. According to him, this decline hits the market harder than any before, especially considering the October 10 crash that completely destroyed altcoins. Meanwhile, stocks and metals were setting new all-time highs during most of the correction.
3-day BTC/USD chart. Analysis: Daan Crypto
Trader BitBull sees similarities between the current Bitcoin fractal and Q1 2025. He believes Bitcoin has front-run an upcoming stock market crash by falling below a key Fibonacci level — but the true bottom has not yet been reached.
1-day BTC/USD chart. Analysis: BitBull
Technical indicators signal oversold conditions
Analyst Tony Severino reports that Bitcoin’s daily RSI has reached its most oversold level in 2025, comparable to the April crash triggered by tariff actions.
1-day BTC/USD chart. Analysis: Tony Severino
Trader Roman expects a short-term bounce, as RSI is at historically low levels and MACD shows its weakest readings since 2021. However, a short-term rebound does not indicate a trend reversal — he still sees $76,000 as the likely correction bottom.
1-day BTC/USD chart. Analysis: Roman
Possible causes of the crash
Crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe highlights several potential reasons for the drop. Rising yields on 10-year Japanese bonds negatively impact crypto assets. Corporate Bitcoin reserve (DAT) sell-offs based on current valuation accelerate the decline. It is also possible that a major trading firm or market maker is on the verge of liquidation or unwinding positions after the October 10 bankruptcy.
Van de Poppe compares the current situation to the FTX collapse and says he has rarely seen such extreme price movements in nine years of active trading.
The Kobeissi Letter founder Adam Kobeissi attributes the crash to market sentiment: investors fear being “the last ones out” of falling assets. Markets are now oscillating between extremes and have become hypersensitive to every piece of news.
Forecasts of further movement
Quantile model creator PlanC observes massive panic selling and suggests the possibility of another $10,000+ drop within 24 hours. The $70,000–75,000 range is becoming increasingly likely.
The analyst compares the situation to the rapid capitulation of March 2020 and suggests that Bitcoin may be signaling a global “black swan” event.
PlanC expects 4–8 weeks of market turbulence, but still does not predict a long-term bear market. If Bitcoin falls to $70,000–75,000, he anticipates an impressive reversal similar to March 2020 (COVID-19 announcement).
Trader Skew sees similarities with the previous cycle and highlights the importance of the $86,000–85,000 zone.
1-week BTC/USD chart. Analysis: Skew
Thus, analysts are divided: some expect a short-term bounce due to oversold indicators, while others warn of a possible decline to $70,000–75,000.
See also: "Ethereum Has Entered a “Buy Zone,” but What Is Holding Back the Bulls?"
