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Bitcoin Faces Familiar Bearish Trend as Analysts Warn of a 2022-Style Breakdown Risk
Bitcoin is showing signs reminiscent of the 2022 bear market, raising concerns among analysts that prices could either decline sharply or enter a prolonged sideways phase.
Data from on-chain analytics firms Swissblock and CryptoQuant indicates that Bitcoin’s market momentum is weakening, while investor sentiment is becoming increasingly bearish.
Bitcoin Is Losing Momentum, but No Major Breakdown Yet
Swissblock noted that Bitcoin’s strong bullish momentum has weakened, although the market has not yet entered a full breakdown phase.
The company compared the current setup to June and July 2025, when Bitcoin lost momentum but later recovered after a period of sideways trading.
According to Swissblock, Bitcoin could still avoid a major collapse if momentum remains above key support levels.
For now, the firm expects consolidation rather than an immediate sharp decline.
Source: X
CryptoQuant Warns of a 2022-Style Pattern
CryptoQuant holds a more negative outlook for Bitcoin.
The company noted that Bitcoin recently failed to break above its 200-day moving average near $82,400.
Analysts argue that this setup closely resembles March 2022, when Bitcoin briefly rallied before continuing a broader downward trend.
Source: X
Julio Moreno, an analyst at CryptoQuant, explained that Bitcoin rose approximately 37% from its April 2026 lows before encountering resistance.
In 2022, Bitcoin also staged a strong rally but was rejected at the same technical level.
Historically, the 200-day moving average has often separated temporary rallies from genuine market recoveries during bear markets.
Market Demand Is Weakening
CryptoQuant also reported that demand for Bitcoin is slowing across several areas of the market.
In futures markets, traders have started closing leveraged long positions after Bitcoin failed to hold above $82,000.
Spot market demand has also weakened.
Meanwhile, US spot Bitcoin ETFs reportedly turned into net sellers after previously purchasing large amounts of BTC earlier in May.
Another bearish signal is the negative Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index.
Strong bull markets are usually supported by aggressive buying from US investors, but current data suggests many market participants remain cautious.
Bearish Sentiment Is Increasing
The Bull Score Index from CryptoQuant recently dropped from 40 to 20, which the company described as “extremely bearish”.
Similar readings were observed earlier in 2026 when Bitcoin fell into the $60,000–$66,000 range.
Historically, low Bull Score readings have often been associated either with deeper declines or prolonged sideways trading.
If Bitcoin continues falling, CryptoQuant believes the next major support level could be around $70,000.
Bitcoin Still Holds Above $77,000
Despite the increasingly bearish outlook, Bitcoin remains above $77,000 for now.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading near $77,320, up around 0.6% over the past 24 hours, as traders continue watching whether the market stabilises or enters a deeper downtrend.
See also: "HYPE Targets $69 as Whales Double Down and Short Sellers Face Mounting Losses"
