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Bitcoin falls below $68,000 again: bear market continues
Bitcoin dropped below $68,000 on Sunday, March 22, triggering large-scale liquidations of $400 million and returning to the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) — an indicator that has not become a reliable support level in 2026.
1-week chart of $BTC/USD and 200EMA. Source: Bitstamp
According to CoinGlass, $408 million in positions were forcibly liquidated over the past 24 hours: over $300 million were longs, about $85 million were shorts. The bearish impulse intensified on Saturday and by Sunday brought $BTC/USD back directly to the 200-week EMA zone near $68,300. The question of whether this level will act as support or resistance remains open.
200-week EMA: unreliable support
Historically, the 200-week EMA served as a key boundary between bull and bear markets. However, in the current cycle this level does not provide stable support: several attempts to consolidate above it have ended in pullbacks.
Analyst Rekt Capital described a possible scenario last week: Bitcoin may continue to fluctuate around the 200-week EMA without turning it into either a convincing support or resistance, before eventually breaking downward. For a foundation of future growth to form, a clear reclaim of this level from below is required — which has not yet happened.
1-week chart of $BTC/USD. Analysis: Rekt Capital
Trader and analyst Roman wrote on social media platform X that there are no signs of bear market exhaustion on higher timeframes — no divergences, no reversal patterns, and no loss of downward momentum. “Confident in reaching $50,000, and likely even lower,” he stated, maintaining his bearish outlook.
1-week chart of $BTC/USD. Analysis: Roman
Golden cross on the 1-day chart
Amid overall pessimism, the market received one conditionally positive signal: the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) crossed above the 50-day SMA, forming a so-called “golden cross.” This formation indicates strengthening short-term price momentum. Keith Alan, co-founder of the trading resource Material Indicators, reacted to the signal without excessive optimism. “The golden cross will likely provide short-term bullish momentum. The key is whether it develops into something sustainable,” he wrote, adding: “For now — the range game continues.”
1-day chart of $BTC/USD. Analysis: Keith Alan
The context is important: earlier in March, two “death crosses” — a bearish technical pattern — formed on the daily $BTC/USD chart, triggering warnings of a potential drop below $40,000.
AI Opinion
An analysis of historical Bitcoin cycles highlights a notable feature of the current situation: the 200-week EMA previously acted as a reliable floor during bear markets in 2018 and 2022 — price touched it and rebounded. Now Bitcoin has been trading near this level for several weeks without a convincing bounce, which is itself unusual for this indicator.
See also: "Bitcoin’s movement will determine the direction of Zcash price at the $220 level"
